Saturday, April 04, 2009
The 2009 predictions
| Sports Illustrated | Bill James formula | |
| AL East | ||
| 1. N.Y. Yankees (97-65) | 1. Boston Red Sox (95-67) | |
| 2. Boston Red Sox (96-66) | 2. N.Y. Yankees (91-71) | |
| 3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72) | 3. Tampa Bay Rays (87-69) | |
| 4. Baltimore Orioles (80-82) | 4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) | |
| 5. Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) | 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-93) | |
| AL Central | ||
| 1. Minnesota Twins (85-77) | 1. Cleveland Indians (86-76) | |
| 2. Cleveland Indians (82-80) | 2. Minnesota Twins (85-77) | |
| 3. Chicago White Sox (79-83) | 3. Chicago White Sox (83-79) | |
| 4. Detroit Tigers (77-85) | 4. Detroit Tigers (79-83) | |
| 5. Kansas City Royals (74-88) | 5. Kansas City Royals (73-89) | |
| AL West | ||
| 1. L.A. Angels (86-76) | 1. L.A. Angels (98-64) | |
| 2. Oakland Athletics (81-81) | 2. Texas Rangers (78-84) | |
| 3. Texas Rangers (73-89) | 3. Oakland Athletics (75-87) | |
| 4. Seattle Mariners (69-93) | 4. Seattle Mariners (70-92) | |
| NL East | ||
| 1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) | 1. Philadelphia Phillies (91-71) | |
| 2. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) | 2. N.Y. Mets (89-73) | |
| 3. Atlanta Braves (84-78) | 3. Florida Marlins (80-82) | |
| 4. Florida Marlins (77-85) | 4. Atlanta Braves (76-86) | |
| 5. Washington Nationals (70-92) | 5. Washington Nationals (64-98) | |
| NL Central | ||
| 1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) | 1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) | |
| 2. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) | 2. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74) | |
| 3. St. Louis Cardinals (82-80) | 3. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79) | |
| 4. Cincinnati Reds (80-82) | 4. Houston Astros (82-80) | |
| 5. Houston Astros (70-92) | 5. Cincinnati Reds (73-89) | |
| 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98) | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) | |
| NL West | ||
| 1. L.A. Dodgers (88-74) | 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) | |
| 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75) | 2. L.A. Dodgers (83-79) | |
| 3. San Francisco Giants (77-85) | 3. Colorado Rockies (79-83) | |
| 4. Colorado Rockies (76-86) | 4. San Francisco Giants (72-90) | |
| 5. San Diego Padres (69-93) | 5. San Diego Padres (72-90) | |
Looking forward to another baseball season!
Labels: bill james, predictions, sports illustrated
2008 predictions in review
For those of you just joining us, every year, baseballrelated.com presents the predictions from the baseball preview issue of Sports Illustrated, as well as the predictions produced by an extremely quick-and-dirty formula from a Bill James Baseball Abstract of the 1980s. It's now time to compare the 2008 predictions against the 2008 final standings.
| Sports Illustrated | Bill James formula | Actual results |
| AL East | ||
| 1. N.Y. Yankees (94-68) | 1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67) | 1. Tampa Bay Rays (97-65) |
| 2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) | 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67) | 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67) |
| 3. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75) | 3. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78) | 3. N.Y. Yankees (89-73) |
| 4. Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) | 4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) | 4. Toronto Blue Jays (86-76) |
| 5. Baltimore Orioles (64-98) | 5. Tampa Bay Rays (64-98) | 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-93) |
| AL Central | ||
| 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72) | 1. Cleveland Indians (90-72) | 1. Chicago White Sox (89-74) |
| 2. Cleveland Indians (89-73) | 2. Detroit Tigers (90-72) | 2. Minnesota Twins (88-75) |
| 3. Chicago White Sox (77-85) | 3. Minnesota Twins (85-77) | 3. Cleveland Indians (81-81) |
| 4. Kansas City Royals (73-89) | 4. Chicago White Sox (78-84) | 4. Kansas City Royals (75-87) |
| 5. Minnesota Twins (72-90) | 5. Kansas City Royals (67-95) | 5. Detroit Tigers (74-88) |
| AL West | ||
| 1. L.A. Angels (87-75) | 1. L.A. Angels (92-70) | 1. L.A. Angels (100-62) |
| 2. Seattle Mariners (82-80) | 2. Seattle Mariners (85-77) | 2. Texas Rangers (79-83) |
| 3. Oakland Athletics (75-87) | 3. Oakland Athletics (82-80) | 3. Oakland Athletics (75-86) |
| 4. Texas Rangers (72-90) | 4. Texas Rangers (77-89) | 4. Seattle Mariners (61-101) |
| NL East | ||
| 1. N.Y. Mets (91-71) | 1. N.Y. Mets (91-71) | 1. Philadelphia Phillies (92-70) |
| 2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76) | 2. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) | 2. N.Y. Mets (89-73) |
| 3. Atlanta Braves (85-77) | 3. Atlanta Braves (82-80) | 3. Florida Marlins (84-77) |
| 4. Washington Nationals (73-89) | 4. Florida Marlins (73-89) | 4. Atlanta Braves (72-90) |
| 5. Florida Marlins (72-90) | 5. Washington Nationals (72-90) | 5. Washington Nationals (59-102) |
| NL Central | ||
| 1. Chicago Cubs (91-71) | 1. Milwaukee Brewers (80-82) | 1. Chicago Cubs (97-64) |
| 2. Cincinnati Reds (87-75) | 2. St. Louis Cardinals (80-82) | 2. Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) |
| 3. Milwaukee Brewers (85-77) | 3. Chicago Cubs (79-83) | 3. Houston Astros (86-75) |
| 4. Houston Astros (74-88) | 4. Houston Astros (76-86) | 4. St. Louis Cardinals (86-76) |
| 5. St. Louis Cardinals (73-89) | 5. Cincinnati Reds (75-87) | 5. Cincinnati Reds (74-88) |
| 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94) | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) |
| NL West | ||
| 1. Colorado Rockies (89-73) | 1. San Diego Padres (89-73) | 1. L.A. Dodgers (84-78) |
| 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74) | 2. Colorado Rockies (85-77) | 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80) |
| 3. L.A. Dodgers (85-77) | 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) | 3. Colorado Rockies (74-88) |
| 4. San Diego Padres (79-83) | 4. L.A. Dodgers (84-78) | 4. San Francisco Giants (72-90) |
| 5. San Francisco Giants (68-94) | 5. San Francisco Giants (73-89) | 5. San Diego Padres (63-99) |
Neither prediction did particularly well in 2008. Both failed on the surprising Rays, and on predicting the Tigers to finish first (actually, the Bill James formula had them tied with the Indians). The Bill James formula also predicted the Padres to finish first -- yikes.
But now we start with a clean slate for 2009, and two fresh sets of predictions. They will be posted here soon.
Labels: bill james, predictions, sports illustrated
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
The predictive power of baseballrelated.com
However, Levi assumed Obama's election would come in 2012 (presumably, after John Kerry served two terms) -- and Levi's not so good at predicting who is and isn't going to do something stupid to ruin his political career.
Labels: barack obama, eliot spitzer, predictions
Friday, March 28, 2008
Predictions for 2008
| Sports Illustrated | Bill James formula |
| AL East | |
| 1. N.Y. Yankees (94-68) | 1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67) |
| 2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) | 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67) |
| 3. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75) | 3. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78) |
| 4. Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) | 4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) |
| 5. Baltimore Orioles (64-98) | 5. Tampa Bay Rays (64-98) |
| AL Central | |
| 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72) | 1. Cleveland Indians (90-72) |
| 2. Cleveland Indians (89-73) | 2. Detroit Tigers (90-72) |
| 3. Chicago White Sox (77-85) | 3. Minnesota Twins (85-77) |
| 4. Kansas City Royals (73-89) | 4. Chicago White Sox (78-84) |
| 5. Minnesota Twins (72-90) | 5. Kansas City Royals (67-95) |
| AL West | |
| 1. L.A. Angels (87-75) | 1. L.A. Angels (92-70) |
| 2. Seattle Mariners (82-80) | 2. Seattle Mariners (85-77) |
| 3. Oakland Athletics (75-87) | 3. Oakland Athletics (82-80) |
| 4. Texas Rangers (72-90) | 4. Texas Rangers (77-89) |
| NL East | |
| 1. N.Y. Mets (91-71) | 1. N.Y. Mets (91-71) |
| 2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76) | 2. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) |
| 3. Atlanta Braves (85-77) | 3. Atlanta Braves (82-80) |
| 4. Washington Nationals (73-89) | 4. Florida Marlins (73-89) |
| 5. Florida Marlins (72-90) | 5. Washington Nationals (72-90) |
| NL Central | |
| 1. Chicago Cubs (91-71) | 1. Milwaukee Brewers (80-82) |
| 2. Cincinnati Reds (87-75) | 2.St. Louis Cardinals (80-82) |
| 3. Milwaukee Brewers (85-77) | 3. Chicago Cubs (79-83) |
| 4. Houston Astros (74-88) | 4. Houston Astros (76-86) |
| 5. St. Louis Cardinals (73-89) | 5. Cincinnati Reds (75-87) |
| 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94) |
| NL West | |
| 1. Colorado Rockies (89-73) | 1. San Diego Padres (89-73) |
| 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74) | 2. Colorado Rockies (85-77) |
| 3. L.A. Dodgers (85-77) | 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) |
| 4. San Diego Padres (79-83) | 4. L.A. Dodgers (84-78) |
| 5. San Francisco Giants (68-94) | 5. San Francisco Giants (73-89) |
In other news, although I have upgraded my TV watching to high-definition since last year, I have also had a schedule change at my job. I now work a normal Monday-through-Friday week, which means I will not be at home to watch the Opening Day games, as I did in 2007 and 2006 and 2005. Sorry about that. Perhaps by 2009, I will be independently wealthy, or I'll use a day of vacation time.
Labels: bill james, predictions, sports illustrated
Monday, October 29, 2007
The predictions in review
| Actual results | Sports Illustrated | Bill James formula | Levi's predictions |
| AL East | |||
| 1. Boston Red Sox (96-66) | 1. N.Y. Yankees | 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66) | 1. Boston Red Sox |
| 2. N.Y. Yankees (94-68) | 2. Boston Red Sox | 2. Boston Red Sox (89-73) | 2. N.Y. Yankees |
| 3. Toronto Blue Jays (83-79) | 3. Toronto Blue Jays | 3. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) | 3. Toronto Blue Jays |
| 4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) | 4. Baltimore Orioles | 4. Baltimore Orioiles (71-91) | 4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays |
| 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (66-96) | 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (63-99) | 5. Baltimore Orioles |
| AL Central | |||
| 1. Cleveland Indians (96-66) | 1. Cleveland Indians | 1. Chicago White Sox (93-69) | 1. Minnesota Twins |
| 2. Detroit Tigers (88-74) | 2. Detroit Tigers | 2. Minnesota Twins (92-70) | 2. Detroit Tigers |
| 3. Minnesota Twins (79-83) | 3. Chicago White Sox | 3. Detroit Tigers (87-75) | 3. Cleveland Indians |
| 4. Chicago White Sox (72-90) | 4. Minnesota Twins | 4. Cleveland Indians (83-79) | 4. Chicago White Sox |
| 5. Kansas City Royals (69-93) | 5. Kansas City Royals | 5. Kansas City Royals (60-102) | 5. Kansas City Royals |
| AL West | |||
| 1. L.A. Angels (94-68) | 1. L.A. Angels | 1. L.A. Angels (91-71) | 1. L.A. Angels |
| 2. Seattle Mariners (88-74) | 2. Oakland Athletics | 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71) | 2. Oakland Athletics |
| 3. Oakland Athletics (76-86) | 3. Texas Rangers | 3. Texas Rangers (80-82) | 3. Texas Rangers |
| 4. Texas Rangers (75-87) | 4. Seattle Mariners | 4. Seattle Mariners (75-87) | 4. Seattle Mariners |
| NL East | |||
| 1. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) | 1. N.Y. Mets | 1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) | 1. N.Y. Mets |
| 2. N.Y. Mets (88-74) | 2. Atlanta Braves | 2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76) | 2. Atlanta Braves |
| 3. Atlanta Braves (84-78) | 3. Philadelphia Phillies | 3. Atlanta Braves (83-79) | 3. Philadelphia Phillies |
| 4. Washington Nationals (73-89) | 4. Florida Marlins | 4. Florida Marlins (80-82) | 4. Florida Marlins |
| 5. Florida Marlins (71-91) | 5. Washington Nationals | 5. Washington Nationals (74-88) | 5. Washington Nationals |
| NL Central | |||
| 1. Chicago Cubs (85-77) | 1. St. Louis Cardinals | 1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) | 1. St. Louis Cardinals |
| 2. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79) | 2. Chicago Cubs | 2. Houston Astros (84-78) | 2. Milwaukee Brewers |
| 3. St. Louis Cardinals (78-84) | 3. Milwaukee Brewers | 3. Cincinnati Reds (78-84) | 3. Chicago Cubs |
| 4. Houston Astros (73-89) | 4. Houston Astros | 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) | 4. Cincinnati Reds |
| 5. Cincinnati Reds (72-90) | 5. Pittsburgh Pirates | 5. Chicago Cubs (70-92) | 5. Houston Astros |
| 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94) | 6. Cincinnati Reds | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates |
| NL West | |||
| 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) | 1. L.A. Dodgers | 1. San Diego Padres (86-76) | 1. Arizona Diamondbacks |
| 2. Colorado Rockies (90-73) | 2. Arizona Diamondbacks | 2. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) | 2. L.A. Dodgers |
| 3. San Diego Padres (89-74) | 3. San Diego Padres | 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86) | 3. San Diego Padres |
| 4. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) | 4. Colorado Rockies | 3. San Francisco Giants (76-86) | 4. San Francisco Giants |
| 5. San Francisco Giants (71-91) | 5. San Francisco Giants | 5. Colorado Rockies (73-89) | 5. Colorado Rockies |
(Levi's predictions, made in the comments to the March 29th post, didn't actually include the Rockies, which I didn't notice until I was preparing this table. If he wants to lie in the comments to this post and claim he meant to put them in first or second place in the NL West, that's his prerogative.)
Labels: bill james, predictions, sports illustrated
Thursday, March 29, 2007
The predictions
Also, I realize I haven't yet used Bill James's quick-and-dirty prediction formula as I've done previously.
| Sports Illustrated | Bill James formula |
| AL East | |
| 1. N.Y. Yankees | 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66) |
| 2. Boston Red Sox | 2. Boston Red Sox (89-73) |
| 3. Toronto Blue Jays | 3. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) |
| 4. Baltimore Orioles | 4. Baltimore Orioles (71-91) |
| 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays | 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (63-99) |
| AL Central | |
| 1. Cleveland Indians | 1. Chicago White Sox (93-69) |
| 2. Detroit Tigers | 2. Minnesota Twins (92-70) |
| 3. Chicago White Sox | 3. Detroit Tigers (87-75) |
| 4. Minnesota Twins | 4. Cleveland Indians (83-79) |
| 5. Kansas City Royals | 5. Kansas City Royals (60-102) |
| AL West | |
| 1. L.A. Angels | 1. L.A. Angels (91-71) |
| 2. Oakland Athletics | 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71) |
| 3. Texas Rangers | 3. Texas Rangers (80-82) |
| 4. Seattle Mariners | 4. Seattle Mariners (75-87) |
| NL East | |
| 1. N.Y. Mets | 1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) |
| 2. Atlanta Braves | 2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76) |
| 3. Philadelphia Phillies | 3. Atlanta Braves (83-79) |
| 4. Florida Marlins | 4. Florida Marlins (80-82) |
| 5. Washington Nationals | 5. Washington Nationals (74-88) |
| NL Central | |
| 1. St. Louis Cardinals | 1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) |
| 2. Chicago Cubs | 2. Houston Astros (84-78) |
| 3. Milwaukee Brewers | 3. Cincinnati Reds (78-84) |
| 4. Houston Astros | 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) |
| 5. Pittsburgh Pirates | 5. Chicago Cubs (70-92) |
| 6. Cincinnati Reds | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) |
| NL West | |
| 1. L.A. Dodgers | 1. San Diego Padres (86-76) |
| 2. Arizona Diamondbacks | 2. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) |
| 3. San Diego Padres | 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86) |
| 4. Colorado Rockies | 3. San Francisco Giants (76-86) |
| 5. San Francisco Giants | 5. Colorado Rockies (73-89) |
The biggest surprise in the Sports Illustrated predictions is the position of the Cubs, but I guess that's the eternal optimism for you.
Their World Series pick is for a freeway series, Angels over the Dodgers. Incidentally, they've changed the parking procedures at Dodger Stadium this year (and raised the parking rate from $10 to $15 in the process), so any late-arriving fans can be ascribed to the parking attendants not knowing what they're doing, rather than the usual apathy.
My schedule is clear for Monday and MLB Extra Innings will definitely be on DirecTV, if nowhere else, so I'm ready for another year of Opening Day blogging.
(Note primarily to myself for future reference: here's how I fixed the problem with the table.)
Labels: bill james, cubs, dodgers, predictions, sports illustrated
Monday, October 02, 2006
Seasonal statistics
So...uh, well, nobody foresaw the success of certain AL Central teams, or the non-success of a certain NL East team that's not in the playoffs for the first time since what seems like when Hank Aaron was on the team.
Nov. 1, 2005 prediction Sports Illustrated Actual result
NL East
Atlanta Braves (90-72) Atlanta Braves New York Mets (97-65)
Philadelphia Phillies (86-76) New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies (85-77)
Florida Marlins (83-79) Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves (79-83)
New York Mets (80-82) Washington Nationals Florida Marlins (78-84)
Washington Nationals (78-84) Florida Marlins Washington Nationals (71-91)
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (97-65) St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals (83-78)
Houston Astros (88-74) Milwaukee Brewers Houston Astros (82-80)
Chicago Cubs (82-80) Houston Astros Cincinnati Reds (80-82)
Milwaukee Brewers (78-84) Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers (75-87)
Cincinnati Reds (76-86) Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90) Cincinnati Reds Chicago Cubs (66-96)
NL West
San Diego Padres (83-79) L.A. Dodgers San Diego Padres (88-74)
San Francisco Giants (81-81) San Francisco Giants L.A. Dodgers (88-74)
L.A. Dodgers (79-83) San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants (76-85)
Arizona Diamondbacks (72-90) Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86)
Colorado Rockies (71-91) Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies (76-86)
AL East
New York Yankees (93-69) New York Yankees New York Yankees (97-65)
Boston Red Sox (91-71) Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays (87-75)
Toronto Blue Jays (77-85) Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox (86-76)
Baltimore Orioles (76-86) Tampa Bay Devil Rays Baltimore Orioles (70-92)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (71-91) Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Devil Rays (61-101)
AL Central
Chicago White Sox (90-72) Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins (96-66)
Cleveland Indians (87-75) Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers (95-67)
Minnesota Twins (84-78) Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox (90-72)
Detroit Tigers (73-89) Detroit Tigers Cleveland Indians (78-84)
Kansas City Royals (62-100) Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals (62-100)
AL West
L.A. Angels (91-71) Oakland A's Oakland A's (93-69)
Oakland A's (87-75) L.A. Angels L.A. Angels (89-73)
Texas Rangers (82-80) Texas Rangers Texas Rangers (80-82)
Seattle Mariners (70-92) Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners (78-84)
Comparing the teams' expected numbers of wins to their actual 2006 wins, here are the teams ranked from least to most disappointing (playoff teams in bold):
1. Detroit Tigers +22
2. New York Mets +17
3. Minnesota Twins +12
4. Toronto Blue Jays +10
5. L.A. Dodgers +9
6. Seattle Mariners +8
7. Oakland A's +6
8. Arizona Diamondbacks +5
8. Colorado Rockies +5
8. San Diego Padres +5
11. Cincinnati Reds +4
11. New York Yankees +4
13. Philadelphia Phillies +1
14. Chicago White Sox EVEN
14. Kansas City Royals EVEN
16. L.A. Angels -2
16. Texas Rangers -2
18. Milwaukee Brewers -3
19. Boston Red Sox -5
19. Florida Marlins -5
19. Pittsburgh Pirates -5
19. San Francisco Giants -5
23. Baltimore Orioles -6
23. Houston Astros -6
25. Washington Nationals -7
26. Cleveland Indians -9
27. Tampa Bay Devil Rays -10
28. Atlanta Braves -11
29. St. Louis Cardinals -14
30. Chicago Cubs -16
Cardinals: ouch!
Labels: predictions
Sunday, May 21, 2006
"He's sittin' on 714"
Meanwhile, Albert Pujols is on the cover of Sports Illustrated again, for the second time in less than two months, and why not? Also in the issue is Baseball Prospectus's projected home run leader board from the year 2020, which I want to reproduce here for posterity:
1. Barry Bonds (765)
2. Hank Aaron (755)
3. Babe Ruth (714)
4. Alex Rodriguez (678)
5. Willie Mays (660)
6. Adam Dunn (638)
7. Ken Griffey Jr. (637)
8. Albert Pujols (620)
9. Manny Ramirez (589)
10. Sammy Sosa (588)
11. Robotic Hitting Unit HR-1 (587)
12. Frank Robinson (586)
One of the above was actually my own addition to the Baseball Prospectus list, solely to make Levi chuckle.
Labels: Albert Pujols, barry bonds, milo hamilton, predictions, robots, sports illustrated
Thursday, March 30, 2006
If it's the last Thursday in March...
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. New York Mets
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Houston Astros
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
6. Cincinnati Reds
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers
2. S.F. Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals
AL West
1. Oakland A's
2. L.A. Angels
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
The two wild-card teams, they believe, will be the Angels and the Mets. White Sox vs. A's in the ALCS, Cardinals vs. Braves in the NLCS, and White Sox over the Cardinals.
Labels: Albert Pujols, predictions, sports illustrated
Thursday, March 23, 2006
Spring is here, I hear
Some ground rules:
1) Pick the Braves to win. Seriously. Just give up not doing so. I hate this rule, but if I'd followed it even once since 1991, I'd have picked better.
2) Pick the Royals for last.
3) If you're really inspired, list the order of finish for each division in each league. If you're lazy, pick each division winner and the wild card for each league.
4) Pick the MVP and Cy Young. Don't pick Rookie of the Year, unless you pay more attention to the minor leagues than I do.
5) As you do your calculations, remember that Operation Shutdown is, so far as I know, still in effect. The Pirates will not have the use of theservices of Derek Bell.
Play Ball, boys!*
*and girls. Girls are encouraged to post. Got lots of female friends who are rabid fans, don't want to slight 'em.
Labels: braves, operation shutdown, predictions
Friday, February 03, 2006
Play ball, robots!
SG's top teams?
AL East: Toronto, with 86 wins, tops the Yanks by 1
AL Central: Cleveland takes it with 92
AL West: Oakland with 96, the best total in baseball
NL East: Mets. Really. The Mets, with 93
NL Central: The Cardinals, falling a bit to only 94 wins.
NL West: Padres, climbing to 85 wins
The Cardinals make the playoffs 80 out of 100 seasons, either via a title or the Wild Card. Cubs win 85 and make the playoffs 38 times. Dodgers come in at 83 wins and 30 playoff appearances. Special to Toby: Pittsburgh averages 82 wins and makes 20 playoff appearances!!!
Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Florida are the only three teams never to make the playoffs. But I suppose their fans didn't need magic robots to tell them that, did they?
You can see SG's table here, scrolling down to comment #76.
Oh, this means the season's getting close. Time to hie myself to my local bookstore and order Baseball Prospectus 2006.
Labels: diamond mind, predictions, robots
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
No need to play the games
AL East
N.Y. Yankees (93-69)
Boston Red Sox (91-71)
Toronto Blue Jays (77-85)
Baltimore Orioles (76-86)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (71-91)
AL Central
Chicago White Sox (90-72)
Cleveland Indians (87-75)
Minnesota Twins (84-78)
Detroit Tigers (73-89)
Kansas City Royals (62-100)
AL West
L.A. Angels (91-71)
Oakland A's (87-75)
Texas Rangers (82-80)
Seattle Mariners (70-92)
NL East
Atlanta Braves (90-72)
Philadelphia Phillies (86-76)
Florida Marlins (83-79)
N.Y. Mets (80-82)
Washington Nationals (78-84)
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals (97-65)
Houston Astros (88-74)
Chicago Cubs (82-80)
Milwaukee Brewers (78-84)
Cincinnati Reds (76-86)
Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90)
NL West
San Diego Padres (83-79)
San Francisco Giants (81-81)
L.A. Dodgers (79-83)
Arizona Diamondbacks (72-90)
Colorado Rockies (71-91)
Labels: bill james, predictions
Monday, October 03, 2005
Standings in the place where you live
SI Prediction Bob's Prediction Actual Results
NL East
Atlanta Braves N.Y. Mets Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins Atlanta Braves Philadelphia Phillies
N.Y. Mets Philadelphia Phillies Florida Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies Florida Marlins N.Y. Mets
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals Washington Nationals
NL Central
St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs Houston Astros
Houston Astros Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
San Francisco Giants San Diego Padres San Diego Padres
L.A. Dodgers Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres L.A. Dodgers San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks San Francisco Giants L.A. Dodgers
Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks Colorado Rockies
AL East
New York Yankees New York Yankees New York Yankees*
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Tampa Bay Devil Rays Tampa Bay Devil Rays
AL Central
Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians Minnesota Twins Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals
AL West
L.A. Angels Oakland A's L.A. Angels
Texas Rangers L.A. Angels Oakland A's
Oakland A's Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners
*-The Yankees and Red Sox both finished with the same record (95-67),
and the MLB standings I'm looking at have the Red Sox on top for what
I believe are reasons relating to alphabetical order. But it seems weird
to me to have the division champion listed under the wild-card team.
Sports Illustrated was better with their predictions than they were last year, but here's a special salute to Bob for predicting the correct division champion in the NL West (and they managed to finish with a winning record, too!).
One thing I noticed while perusing the final standings: the Cardinals had the same record at home and on the road (50-31). I believe earlier in the season, I made a tongue-in-cheek comment in this blog that the Cardinals were "boring." Clearly, the word I meant was "consistent."
Labels: predictions, sports illustrated
Friday, April 01, 2005
It's that time.
AL East: Boring
Red Sox
Yankees
Some other teams
AL Central: Not that good
Twins
Indians
Sox
Tigers
Royals
AL West: Where the action is
Anaheim
Oakland
Texas
Seattle
NL East: Dan's division
Atlanta (Sorry, Dan.)
Philly (Sorry, Dan.)
Florida (Sorry, Dan.)
New York
Montreal
NL Central: The one you've all been waiting for
St. Louis
Chicago
Houston
Cincinnatti
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
NL West: No Barry, no excitement
LA
San Diego
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado
Tom Tippett over at Diamond Mind has done his usual 100-season simulation, and he has the Cardinals winning an average of 103 games and taking the division title 99 times. While I do think this is the strongest Cardinals team I've ever seen going into the season, I'm not quite as confident as that. Diamond Mind, for example, while taking account of injuries, assigns them more or less randomly, from what I can tell from Tippett's explanation. The Cardinals are relying on a couple of old guys who are very, very good, which means there's a chance that those guys will be very, very hurt.
But the only real competition, the Cubs, are relying on a rotation that has its own durability questions, a bench and bullpen that have chances to be catastrophically awful, and on an offense that has done nothing to change its habit of making a lot of outs.
So despite October's Washington Generals impersonation, I'm with my guys again. I know October 2005 is a long, long way away, but here's to back-to-back pennants.
And you folks?
Original comments:
Anonymous: How come you switched in the middle of the list from team names to city names?
Levi: No excuse: I was in a hurry this morning and edited poorly. That also explains why I have no links in the post.
thatbob: Baseball Related comes with a free predictions archive this year? Kewl! Introducing my first-ever sports predictions of any kind in any sport, informed by 2 days of game play, but still relying mostly on how much I like the teams.
ALE:
Sux
Sox
Js
Oos
Pansies the Wuss-Wusses
ALC:
Tuffies
Tweens
Sox
Racists
Caseys
ALW:
Proppas
LAAOAs
Microsofts
Dubyas
NLE:
Dans
Racists
Phans
Fish
Senators
NLC:
Cards
Cubs
Beers
Reds
Arrs
Orbities
NLW:
Dads
Rocks
Trolleys
Gnats
Snakes
Labels: predictions
Thursday, March 31, 2005
A year of Thursdays later
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Florida Marlins
3. New York Mets
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Washington Nationals
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Houston Astros
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers
6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants
2. L.A. Dodgers
3. San Diego Padres
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. Colorado Rockies
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Kansas City Royals
AL West
1. L.A. Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland A's
4. Seattle Mariners
Guess you can't go too far wrong with what are basically the final standings from last year. Remember, baseball is unlike mutual funds in that quite often, past performance is a guarantee of future results.
I can already tell this season isn't going to be quite as good as 2004. No MLB team will be serving poutine at its concession stands, and worse yet, Hostess doesn't seem to be making Baseballs this year.
In other news, the famous iPod has been sold, and it is on its way to the purchaser.
Original comments...
Luke, hanger-on: Most important: Do you predict a baseball-related road trip this year?
Levi: There has been some discussion, but we have yet to finalize any plans, primarily because the "Levi" part of the team isn't very good at getting organized enough to finalize plans.
Labels: predictions, sports illustrated
Monday, October 04, 2004
And what a season it was
Subheads in today's L.A. Times: "Angels have conjured a special season, and if the franchise is haunted by ghosts of '86 playoff loss to Boston, the players seem unaware of it" and "The Dodgers had 53 come-from-behind wins, 26 in final at-bat, but keeping that magic going against powerful Cardinals won't be easy."
Now we get to make fun of Sports Illustrated for being very wrong about the National League division winners in their before-the-season predictions. The teams we saw on the trip are in bold.
SI Prediction Actual Results
NL East
Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
Florida Marlins Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves Florida Marlins
Montreal Expos New York Mets
New York Mets Montreal Expos
NL Central
Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals
Houston Astros Houston Astros
St. Louis Cardinals Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers
NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks L.A. Dodgers
San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres San Diego Padres
L.A. Dodgers Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks
AL East
New York Yankees New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox
Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Tampa Bay Devil Rays Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central
Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals Cleveland Indians
Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals
AL West
Oakland A's Anaheim Angels
Anaheim Angels Oakland A's
Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners
In other news, over the offseason, the Dodgers are going to add 1,600 more ridiculously expensive seats to Dodger Stadium by moving the dugouts forward into what's now foul territory and putting in more seats between the current ridiculously expensive seats behind home plate and the new dugouts. They'll also be transforming the current rubberized warning track into a dirt track. I hope having the new expensive seats distracts them from raising ticket prices elsewhere in the stadium, namely, the reserved level (third deck) tickets that are currently $17, $12, and $10.
Original comments...
Toby: Levi is probably too busy still celebrating NU's big win over Ohio State Saturday. ...And rightfully so.
Jim: But he's not posting on the Football-Related Program Activities blog, either! Oh, wait, there is no such thing. Football ticket prices (especially in the NFL) and game schedules don't lend themselves to road trips.
An e-mail from my father: "Wore my NU hat to the Bucs game and was literally hugged by Buckeye haters." That's "Bucs" for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, not the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Labels: predictions, sports illustrated
Monday, July 12, 2004
As so often happens twice
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (1x)
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Montreal Expos (1x)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (2x)
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers (2x)
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (3x)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (1x)
2. San Francisco Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox (2x)
3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays (1x)
5. Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox (2x)
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians (1x)
4. Detroit Tigers (2x)
5. Kansas City Royals
AL West
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland A's
3. Anaheim Angels
4. Seattle Mariners
That's right, Sports Illustrated predicted in April that we'd be seeing only one first-place team, but if the standings stay this way for the next five weeks, we'll be seeing four.
Labels: predictions
Friday, April 02, 2004
I was going to post my picks this week, but I've been too busy with work and with hours on the phone trying to alter the car reservation Jim made. There is no reason to get a Taurus when we could get a purple Lamborghini.
Labels: lamborghini, predictions
Thursday, April 01, 2004
As so often happens
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (1x)
2. Florida Marlins
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Montreal Expos (1x)
5. New York Mets
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Houston Astros
3. St. Louis Cardinals (2x)
4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Milwaukee Brewers (2x)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (3x)
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. San Francisco Giants
3. San Diego Padres
4. L.A. Dodgers (1x)
5. Colorado Rockies
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox (2x)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (1x)
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox (2x)
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Cleveland Indians (1x)
5. Detroit Tigers (2x)
AL West
1. Oakland A's
2. Anaheim Angels
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Texas Rangers
Honorable mention to the Twins and Mariners, whose Midwest League teams we'll also be seeing.
Labels: predictions


