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Archives

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2014 predictions

The notes about this site at the beginning of the 2013 predictions post are still applicable.

Once again, Sports Illustrated has picked the Rays to win the AL East. Noooo, that’s the kiss of death!

Their World Series matchup is A’s vs. Nationals, with the Nationals winning. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Sports Illustrated prediction Baseballrelated.com prediction
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (95-67) 1. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71)
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) 2. Baltimore Orioles (88-74)
3. N.Y. Yankees (82-80) 2. Boston Red Sox (88-74)
4. Baltimore Orioles (78-84) 2. N.Y. Yankees (88-74)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (73-89) 5. Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (92-70)
2. Kansas City Royals (88-74) 2. Cleveland Indians (84-78)
3. Cleveland Indians (82-80) 3. Kansas City Royals (81-81)
4. Chicago White Sox (65-97) 4. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
5. Minnesota Twins (62-100) 5. Minnesota Twins (66-96)
AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (94-68) 1. Oakland Athletics (95-67)
2. Texas Rangers (90-72) 2. Texas Rangers (92-70)
3. L.A. Angels (78-84) 3. L.A. Angels (82-80)
4. Seattle Mariners (76-86) 4. Seattle Mariners (72-90)
5. Houston Astros (57-105) 5. Houston Astros (52-110)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (96-66) 2. Atlanta Braves (95-67)
2. Atlanta Braves (84-78) 2. Washington Nationals (90-72)
3. N.Y. Mets (73-89) 3. Philadelphia Phillies (76-86)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (67-95) 4. N.Y. Mets (74-88)
5. Miami Marlins (65-97) 5. Miami Marlins (64-98)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (96-66) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (94-68)
2. Cincinnati Reds (91-71) 2. Cincinnati Reds (92-70)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (83-79) 3. Pittsburgh Pirates (89-73)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85)
5. Chicago Cubs (62-100) 5. Chicago Cubs (64-98)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (99-63) 1. L.A. Dodgers (90-72)
2. San Francisco Giants (92-70) 2. San Francisco Giants (82-80)
3. San Diego Padres (84-78) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83) 4. San Diego Padres (76-86)
5. Colorado Rockies (76-86) 5. Colorado Rockies (71-91)

The 2013 predictions in review

As if you needed another reminder of how surprising the Red Sox’s 2013 season was.

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual Results
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66) 1. Boston Red Sox (97-65)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-71)
3. N.Y. Yankees (82-80) 3. Baltimore Orioles (85-77) 3. Baltimore Orioles (85-77)
3. Baltimore Orioles (82-80) 4. Boston Red Sox (76-86) 3. New York Yankees (85-77)
5. Boston Red Sox (77-85) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (76-86) 5. Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (94-68) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72) 1. Detroit Tigers (93-69)
2. Kansas City Royals (83-79) 2. Chicago White Sox (83-79) 2. Cleveland Indians (92-70)
3. Chicago White Sox (81-81) 3. Cleveland Indians (72-90) 3. Kansas City Royals (86-76)
4. Cleveland Indians (75-87) 3. Kansas City Royals (72-90) 4. Minnesota Twins (66-96)
5. Minnesota Twins (60-102) 5. Minnesota Twins (65-97) 5. Chicago White Sox (63-99)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (95-67) 1. Texas Rangers (94-68) 1. Oakland Athletics (96-66)
2. Texas Rangers (91-71) 2. L.A. Angels (88-74) 2. Texas Rangers (91-72)
3. Oakland Athletics (90-72) 2. Oakland Athletics (88-74) 3. Los Angeles Angels (78-84)
4. Seattle Mariners (78-84) 4. Seattle Mariners (72-90) 4. Seattle Mariners (71-91)
5. Houston Astros (50-112) 5. Houston Astros (55-107) 5. Houston Astros (51-111)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (100-62) 1. Atlanta Braves (92-70) 1. Atlanta Braves (96-66)
2. Atlanta Braves (95-67) 1. Washington Nationals (92-70) 2. Washington Nationals (86-76)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) 3. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) 3. N.Y. Mets (74-88)
4. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 4. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 4. Philadelphia Phillies (73-89)
5. Miami
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Marlins (60-102)

5. Miami Marlins (70-92) 5. Miami Marlins (62-100)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (95-67) 1. Cincinnati Reds (91-71) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (94-68)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (87-73) 3. Cincinnati Reds (90-72)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86) 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (74-88)
5. Chicago Cubs (67-95) 5. Chicago Cubs (64-98) 5. Chicago Cubs (66-96)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. L.A. Dodgers (92-70)
2. L.A. Dodgers (90-72) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83) 2. L.A. Dodgers (85-77) 3. San Diego Padres (76-86)
4. San Diego Padres (71-91) 4. San Diego Padres (74-88) 3. San Francisco Giants (76-86)
5. Colorado Rockies (68-94) 5. Colorado Rockies (67-95) 5. Colorado Rockies (74-88)

2013 predictions

Before I get to the predictions, a few updates and reminders about this site:

  • For long-form blogging from Levi, look to I’ve Been Reading Lately, where he expounds about the books he reads.
  • Levi also tweets at @levistahl on occasion — and sometimes he even mentions baseball.
  • I tweet at @trainman74, more frequently than Levi does — and, again, sometimes I even mention baseball. I’m still unemployed from last year, but unlike last year, I won’t be in Ireland for Opening Day, so I do plan to live-tweet while I watch the games on TV via the MLB Extra Innings free preview. Opening Day being April 1 this year, I might even make up stuff. For example, I might mention that the Dodgers have a $250 million payroll. Ha ha! That’s clearly a ridiculous number.
  • As for baseball road trips, which — you may recall from way back when — are really the entire raison d’etre of this site: no plans. My ongoing unemployment makes a road trip pretty much a non-starter this season for financial reasons, and as for the future, Levi and I haven’t discussed anything. For this season, I’m mainly looking forward to the Rays’ August visit to Dodger Stadium (as well as their Angel Stadium visit in September), which I hope I’ll have enough money to attend!
  • Now that I visited New Yankee Stadium last June, there are 9 current MLB stadiums that I have not been to. I haven’t been keeping up with the “Jim’s MLB Games” link in the sidebar at left, but I have scanned all my baseball ticket stubs — which includes all but the first two MLB games I attended (in 1983 and 1987), as well as all the minor-league games from 1989 on.

On to the predictions. I want to note for the record that Sports Illustrated picked the Nationals to win the NL pennant, and the Rays to win in the AL. I also want to note that I think the cold equation that creates the baseballrelated.com predictions has the Yankees too high.

And…poor Astros. At least neither we nor Sports Illustrated foresee you outdoing the 1962 Mets (or the 1935 Boston Braves).

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)
3. N.Y. Yankees (82-80) 3. Baltimore Orioles (85-77)
3. Baltimore Orioles (82-80) 4. Boston Red Sox (76-86)
5. Boston Red Sox (77-85) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (76-86)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (94-68) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72)
2. Kansas City Royals (83-79) 2. Chicago White Sox (83-79)
3. Chicago White Sox (81-81) 3. Cleveland Indians (72-90)
4. Cleveland Indians (75-87) 3.
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Kansas City Royals (72-90)

5. Minnesota Twins (60-102) 5. Minnesota Twins (65-97)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (95-67) 1. Texas Rangers (94-68)
2. Texas Rangers (91-71) 2. L.A. Angels (88-74)
3. Oakland Athletics (90-72) 2. Oakland Athletics (88-74)
4. Seattle Mariners (78-84) 4. Seattle Mariners (72-90)
5. Houston Astros (50-112) 5. Houston Astros (55-107)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (100-62) 1. Atlanta Braves (92-70)
2. Atlanta Braves (95-67) 1. Washington Nationals (92-70)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) 3. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)
4. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 4. N.Y. Mets (75-87)
5. Miami Marlins (60-102) 5. Miami Marlins (70-92)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (95-67) 1. Cincinnati Reds (91-71)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (87-73)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86) 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85)
5. Chicago Cubs (67-95) 5. Chicago Cubs (64-98)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. San Francisco Giants (91-71)
2. L.A. Dodgers (90-72) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83) 2. L.A. Dodgers (85-77)
4. San Diego Padres (71-91) 4. San Diego Padres (74-88)
5. Colorado Rockies (68-94) 5. Colorado Rockies (67-95)

The 2012 predictions in review

Still alive.

As usual, to remind you of what happened last year, here are our mathematics-based predictions and Sports Illustrated’s expertise-based predictions compared to the actual results of the 2012 MLB season.

Very obvious that the Orioles and the Nationals beat expectations (and the Red Sox did…not). If it’s possible to be proud of my ability to do addition and division on a calculator, then I’m most proud of our correct prediction about the Marlins’ order of finish, compared to Sports Illustrated having bought the hype that, hard as it is to believe now, actually existed around the Marlins at this time last year.

2013 predictions to come later this week, after SI arrives in my mailbox.

Especially

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Sports Illustrated prediction Baseballrelated.com prediction Actual Results
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67) 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66) 1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (93-69) 2. Baltimore Orioles (93-69)
3. Boston Red Sox (91-71) 3. Boston Red Sox (90-72) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (73-89)
5. Baltimore Orioles (63-99) 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-94) 5. Boston Red Sox (69-93)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (93-69) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72) 1. Detroit Tigers (88-74)
2. Kansas City Royals (82-80) 2. Chicago White Sox (82-80) 2. Chicago White Sox (85-77)
3. Cleveland Indians (80-82) 3. Cleveland Indians (76-86) 3. Kansas City Royals (72-90)
4. Minnesota Twins (72-90) 4. Minnesota Twins (73-89) 4. Cleveland Indians (68-94)
5. Chicago White Sox (67-95) 5. Kansas City Royals (70-92) 5. Minnesota Twins (66-96)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (97-65) 1. Texas Rangers (94-68) 1. Oakland Athletics (94-68)
2. Texas Rangers (94-68) 2. L.A. Angels (84-78) 2. Texas Rangers (93-69)
3. Oakland Athletics (68-94) 3. Oakland Athletics (76-86) 4. L.A. Angels (89-73)
4. Seattle Mariners (64-98) 4. Seattle Mariners (65-97) 4. Seattle Mariners (75-87)
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (94-68) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (100-62) 1. Washington Nationals (98-64)
2. Miami Marlins (89-73) 2. Atlanta Braves (90-72) 2. Atlanta Braves (94-68)
3. Washington Nationals (84-78) 3. N.Y. Mets (78-84) 3. Miami Marlins (69-93)
4. Atlanta Braves (82-80) 4. Washington Nationals (76-86) 4. N.Y. Mets (74-88)
5. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 5. Miami Marlins (75-87) 5. Miami Marlins (69-93)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (89-73) 1. Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) 1. Cincinnati Reds (97-65)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 3. Cincinnati Reds (83-79) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) 4. Chicago Cubs (72-90) 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (79-83)
5. Chicago Cubs (66-96) 5. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) 5. Chicago Cubs (61-101)
6. Houston Astros (57-105) 6. Houston Astros (63-99) 6. Houston Astros (55-107)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (90-72) 1. San Francisco Giants (88-74) 1. San Francisco Giants (94-68)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) 2. L.A. Dodgers (86-76)
3. L.A. Dodgers (83-79) 3. L.A. Dodgers (81-81) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81)
4. Colorado Rockies (79-83) 4. San Diego Padres (77-85) 4. San Diego Padres (76-86)
5. San Diego Padres (70-92) 5. Colorado Rockies (76-86) 5. Colorado Rockies (64-98)

Baseball Related Dot Com

Here’s a question you didn’t know you had: what if you take various Hall of Fame candidates and type them into your

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to be a comprehensive review of Ichiro’s career:

Perhaps he should think about adopting the ankle-length blue hair seen in this video as his real-life hairstyle…but I have a feeling that if anyone’s going to do that, it’s going to be Brian Wilson.

Wait, I've had this dream

Gwinnett Ballet Theater dancers in a promotion with the Gwinnett Braves. From

the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

2012 predictions

First of all, I’d say the Cardinals have found their replacement for Albert Pujols!

Minor League Guy on third

I’m currently out of work, which would have allowed me to sit in front of the TV on Opening Day and live-tweet, as I did in some past years (even before Twitter was invented) — but instead, I’m going to be in Ireland, where there will probably not be any baseball on TV.

On to the predictions. Kansas City appears to be Sports Illustrated’s pick to be the surprising team of the year, but our cold equations still have them finishing last in the AL Central. They’re also obviously taking Pujols into account with their Angels prediction, but we’re not.

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67) 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (93-69)
3. Boston Red Sox (91-71) 3. Boston Red Sox (90-72)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
5. Baltimore Orioles (63-99) 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-94)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (93-69) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72)
2. Kansas City Royals (82-80) 2. Chicago White Sox (82-80)
3. Cleveland Indians (80-82) 3. Cleveland Indians (76-86)
4. Minnesota Twins (72-90) 4. Minnesota Twins (73-89)
5. Chicago White Sox (67-95) 5. Kansas City Royals (70-92)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (97-65) 1. Texas Rangers (94-68)
2. Texas Rangers (94-68) 2. L.A. Angels (84-78)
3. Oakland Athletics (68-94) 3. Oakland Athletics (76-86)
4. Seattle Mariners (64-98) 4. Seattle Mariners (65-97)
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (94-68) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (100-62)
2.
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Miami Marlins (89-73)

2. Atlanta Braves (90-72)
3. Washington Nationals (84-78) 3. N.Y. Mets (78-84)
4. Atlanta Braves (82-80) 4. Washington Nationals (76-86)
5. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 5. Miami Marlins (75-87)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (89-73) 1. Milwaukee Brewers (90-72)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 3. Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) 4. Chicago Cubs (72-90)
5. Chicago Cubs (66-96) 5. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
6. Houston Astros (57-105) 6. Houston Astros (63-99)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (90-72) 1. San Francisco Giants (88-74)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78)
3. L.A. Dodgers (83-79) 3. L.A. Dodgers (81-81)
4. Colorado Rockies (79-83) 4. San Diego Padres (77-85)
5. San Diego Padres (70-92) 5. Colorado Rockies (76-86)

The 2011 predictions in review

And here’s what has become the entire raison d’ĂȘtre of this site’s existence, in which we compare the Sports Illustrated projections and our own mathematical formula projections with the actual results.

As you can see, neither we nor SI predicted the Diamondbacks doing as well as they did, nor the Twins doing so poorly. Please note that we got the standings order of the AL East and the AL West correct, unlike SI.

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Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual Results
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (100-62) 1. N.Y. Yankees (98-64) 1. N.Y. Yankees (97-65)
2. N.Y. Yankees (92-70) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) 3. Boston Red Sox (91-71) 3. Boston Red Sox (90-72)
4. Baltimore Orioles (78-84) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (81-81)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (77-85) 5. Baltimore Orioles (65-97) 5. Baltimore Orioles (69-93)
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins (90-72) 1. Minnesota Twins (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (95-67)
2. Detroit Tigers (89-73) 2. Chicago White Sox (85-77) 2. Cleveland Indians (80-82)
3. Chicago White Sox (84-78) 3. Detroit Tigers (83-79) 3. Chicago White Sox (79-83)
4. Cleveland Indians (70-92) 4. Cleveland Indians (68-94) 4. Kansas City Royals (71-91)
5. Kansas City Royals (67-95) 5. Kansas City Royals (66-96) 5. Minnesota Twins (63-99)
AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (87-75) 1. Texas Rangers (89-73) 1. Texas Rangers (96-66)
2. Texas Rangers (85-77) 2. L.A. Angels (86-76) 2. L.A. Angels (86-76)
3. L.A. Angels (77-85) 3. Oakland Athletics (79-83) 3. Oakland Athletics (74-88)
4. Seattle Mariners (63-99) 4. Seattle Mariners (69-93) 4. Seattle Mariners (67-95)
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (96-66) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60)
2. Atlanta Braves (89-73) 2. Atlanta Braves (89-73) 2. Atlanta Braves (80-81)
3. Florida Marlins (85-77) 3. Florida Marlins (82-80) 3. Washington Nationals (80-81)
4. Washington Nationals (75-87) 4. N.Y. Mets (76-86) 4. N.Y. Mets (77-85)
5. N.Y. Mets (74-88) 5. Washington Nationals (66-96) 5. Florida Marlins (72-90)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (89-73) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74) 1. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 2. Cincinnati Reds (87-75) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
3. Chicago Cubs (81-81) 3. Chicago Cubs (78-84) 3. Cincinnati Reds (79-83)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (78-84) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (78-84) 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97) 5. Houston Astros (75-87) 5. Chicago Cubs (71-91)
6. Houston Astros (64-98) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (59-103) 6. Houston Astros (56-106)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68)
2. Colorado Rockies (90-72) 2. Colorado Rockies (86-76) 2. San Francisco Giants (86-76)
3. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) 3. L.A. Dodgers (85-77) 3. L.A. Dodgers (82-79)
4. San Diego Padres (76-86) 3. San Diego Padres (85-77) 4. Colorado Rockies (73-89)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (71-91) 5. Arizona Diamondbacks (67-95) 5. San Diego Padres (71-91)

Sales pitch

I got a phone call today from the Angels selling season ticket plans. Despite the single-game tickets I’ve bought over the last decade-plus, this is the first time I’ve ever been called by a salesperson from any team — never the Angels previously, not the Dodgers, not any of the teams we’ve seen on the road trips.

My guess is that

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the Angels hired some extra people in the ticket department due to Pujols, and now to give them all something to do, they’re going further down the lead sheet than they would have in the past. Fortunately, I got the salesperson off the phone quickly when I said I’d just lost my job — no, wait, I guess that was unfortunate, right?

Anyway, Levi might be happy to know that Pujols didn’t come up during the brief conversation, so at least they’re not leading with him.