2012 predictions

First of all, I’d say the Cardinals have found their replacement for Albert Pujols!

Minor League Guy on third

I’m currently out of work, which would have allowed me to sit in front of the TV on Opening Day and live-tweet, as I did in some past years (even before Twitter was invented) — but instead, I’m going to be in Ireland, where there will probably not be any baseball on TV.

On to the predictions. Kansas City appears to be Sports Illustrated’s pick to be the surprising team of the year, but our cold equations still have them finishing last in the AL Central. They’re also obviously taking Pujols into account with their Angels prediction, but we’re not.

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67) 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (93-69)
3. Boston Red Sox (91-71) 3. Boston Red Sox (90-72)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80)
5. Baltimore Orioles (63-99) 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-94)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (93-69) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72)
2. Kansas City Royals (82-80) 2. Chicago White Sox (82-80)
3. Cleveland Indians (80-82) 3. Cleveland Indians (76-86)
4. Minnesota Twins (72-90) 4. Minnesota Twins (73-89)
5. Chicago White Sox (67-95) 5. Kansas City Royals (70-92)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (97-65) 1. Texas Rangers (94-68)
2. Texas Rangers (94-68) 2. L.A. Angels (84-78)
3. Oakland Athletics (68-94) 3. Oakland Athletics (76-86)
4. Seattle Mariners (64-98) 4. Seattle Mariners (65-97)
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (94-68) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (100-62)
2.

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Miami Marlins (89-73)

2. Atlanta Braves (90-72)
3. Washington Nationals (84-78) 3. N.Y. Mets (78-84)
4. Atlanta Braves (82-80) 4. Washington Nationals (76-86)
5. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 5. Miami Marlins (75-87)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (89-73) 1. Milwaukee Brewers (90-72)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 3. Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) 4. Chicago Cubs (72-90)
5. Chicago Cubs (66-96) 5. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
6. Houston Astros (57-105) 6. Houston Astros (63-99)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (90-72) 1. San Francisco Giants (88-74)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78)
3. L.A. Dodgers (83-79) 3. L.A. Dodgers (81-81)
4. Colorado Rockies (79-83) 4. San Diego Padres (77-85)
5. San Diego Padres (70-92) 5. Colorado Rockies (76-86)

The 2011 predictions in review

And here’s what has become the entire raison d’être of this site’s existence, in which we compare the Sports Illustrated projections and our own mathematical formula projections with the actual results.

As you can see, neither we nor SI predicted the Diamondbacks doing as well as they did, nor the Twins doing so poorly. Please note that we got the standings order of the AL East and the AL West correct, unlike SI.

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Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual Results
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (100-62) 1. N.Y. Yankees (98-64) 1. N.Y. Yankees (97-65)
2. N.Y. Yankees (92-70) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) 3. Boston Red Sox (91-71) 3. Boston Red Sox (90-72)
4. Baltimore Orioles (78-84) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (81-81)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (77-85) 5. Baltimore Orioles (65-97) 5. Baltimore Orioles (69-93)
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins (90-72) 1. Minnesota Twins (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (95-67)
2. Detroit Tigers (89-73) 2. Chicago White Sox (85-77) 2. Cleveland Indians (80-82)
3. Chicago White Sox (84-78) 3. Detroit Tigers (83-79) 3. Chicago White Sox (79-83)
4. Cleveland Indians (70-92) 4. Cleveland Indians (68-94) 4. Kansas City Royals (71-91)
5. Kansas City Royals (67-95) 5. Kansas City Royals (66-96) 5. Minnesota Twins (63-99)
AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (87-75) 1. Texas Rangers (89-73) 1. Texas Rangers (96-66)
2. Texas Rangers (85-77) 2. L.A. Angels (86-76) 2. L.A. Angels (86-76)
3. L.A. Angels (77-85) 3. Oakland Athletics (79-83) 3. Oakland Athletics (74-88)
4. Seattle Mariners (63-99) 4. Seattle Mariners (69-93) 4. Seattle Mariners (67-95)
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (96-66) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (102-60)
2. Atlanta Braves (89-73) 2. Atlanta Braves (89-73) 2. Atlanta Braves (80-81)
3. Florida Marlins (85-77) 3. Florida Marlins (82-80) 3. Washington Nationals (80-81)
4. Washington Nationals (75-87) 4. N.Y. Mets (76-86) 4. N.Y. Mets (77-85)
5. N.Y. Mets (74-88) 5. Washington Nationals (66-96) 5. Florida Marlins (72-90)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (89-73) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74) 1. Milwaukee Brewers (96-66)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 2. Cincinnati Reds (87-75) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
3. Chicago Cubs (81-81) 3. Chicago Cubs (78-84) 3. Cincinnati Reds (79-83)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (78-84) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (78-84) 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97) 5. Houston Astros (75-87) 5. Chicago Cubs (71-91)
6. Houston Astros (64-98) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (59-103) 6. Houston Astros (56-106)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (94-68)
2. Colorado Rockies (90-72) 2. Colorado Rockies (86-76) 2. San Francisco Giants (86-76)
3. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) 3. L.A. Dodgers (85-77) 3. L.A. Dodgers (82-79)
4. San Diego Padres (76-86) 3. San Diego Padres (85-77) 4. Colorado Rockies (73-89)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (71-91) 5. Arizona Diamondbacks (67-95) 5. San Diego Padres (71-91)

Sales pitch

I got a phone call today from the Angels selling season ticket plans. Despite the single-game tickets I’ve bought over the last decade-plus, this is the first time I’ve ever been called by a salesperson from any team — never the Angels previously, not the Dodgers, not any of the teams we’ve seen on the road trips.

My guess is that

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the Angels hired some extra people in the ticket department due to Pujols, and now to give them all something to do, they’re going further down the lead sheet than they would have in the past. Fortunately, I got the salesperson off the phone quickly when I said I’d just lost my job — no, wait, I guess that was unfortunate, right?

Anyway, Levi might be happy to know that Pujols didn’t come up during the brief conversation, so at least they’re not leading with him.