2013 predictions

Before I get to the predictions, a few updates and reminders about this site:

  • For long-form blogging from Levi, look to I’ve Been Reading Lately, where he expounds about the books he reads.
  • Levi also tweets at @levistahl on occasion — and sometimes he even mentions baseball.
  • I tweet at @trainman74, more frequently than Levi does — and, again, sometimes I even mention baseball. I’m still unemployed from last year, but unlike last year, I won’t be in Ireland for Opening Day, so I do plan to live-tweet while I watch the games on TV via the MLB Extra Innings free preview. Opening Day being April 1 this year, I might even make up stuff. For example, I might mention that the Dodgers have a $250 million payroll. Ha ha! That’s clearly a ridiculous number.
  • As for baseball road trips, which — you may recall from way back when — are really the entire raison d’etre of this site: no plans. My ongoing unemployment makes a road trip pretty much a non-starter this season for financial reasons, and as for the future, Levi and I haven’t discussed anything. For this season, I’m mainly looking forward to the Rays’ August visit to Dodger Stadium (as well as their Angel Stadium visit in September), which I hope I’ll have enough money to attend!
  • Now that I visited New Yankee Stadium last June, there are 9 current MLB stadiums that I have not been to. I haven’t been keeping up with the “Jim’s MLB Games” link in the sidebar at left, but I have scanned all my baseball ticket stubs — which includes all but the first two MLB games I attended (in 1983 and 1987), as well as all the minor-league games from 1989 on.

On to the predictions. I want to note for the record that Sports Illustrated picked the Nationals to win the NL pennant, and the Rays to win in the AL. I also want to note that I think the cold equation that creates the baseballrelated.com predictions has the Yankees too high.

And…poor Astros. At least neither we nor Sports Illustrated foresee you outdoing the 1962 Mets (or the 1935 Boston Braves).

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)
3. N.Y. Yankees (82-80) 3. Baltimore Orioles (85-77)
3. Baltimore Orioles (82-80) 4. Boston Red Sox (76-86)
5. Boston Red Sox (77-85) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (76-86)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (94-68) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72)
2. Kansas City Royals (83-79) 2. Chicago White Sox (83-79)
3. Chicago White Sox (81-81) 3. Cleveland Indians (72-90)
4. Cleveland Indians (75-87) 3.

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Kansas City Royals (72-90)

5. Minnesota Twins (60-102) 5. Minnesota Twins (65-97)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (95-67) 1. Texas Rangers (94-68)
2. Texas Rangers (91-71) 2. L.A. Angels (88-74)
3. Oakland Athletics (90-72) 2. Oakland Athletics (88-74)
4. Seattle Mariners (78-84) 4. Seattle Mariners (72-90)
5. Houston Astros (50-112) 5. Houston Astros (55-107)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (100-62) 1. Atlanta Braves (92-70)
2. Atlanta Braves (95-67) 1. Washington Nationals (92-70)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) 3. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)
4. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 4. N.Y. Mets (75-87)
5. Miami Marlins (60-102) 5. Miami Marlins (70-92)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (95-67) 1. Cincinnati Reds (91-71)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (87-73)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86) 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85)
5. Chicago Cubs (67-95) 5. Chicago Cubs (64-98)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. San Francisco Giants (91-71)
2. L.A. Dodgers (90-72) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83) 2. L.A. Dodgers (85-77)
4. San Diego Padres (71-91) 4. San Diego Padres (74-88)
5. Colorado Rockies (68-94) 5. Colorado Rockies (67-95)

The 2012 predictions in review

Still alive. As usual, to remind you of what happened last year, here are our mathematics-based predictions and Sports Illustrated’s expertise-based predictions compared to the actual results of the 2012 MLB season. Very obvious that the Orioles and the Nationals beat expectations (and the Red Sox did…not). If it’s possible to be proud of my ability to do addition and division on a calculator, then I’m most proud of our correct prediction about the Marlins’ order of finish, compared to Sports Illustrated having bought the hype that, hard as it is to believe now, actually existed around the Marlins at this time last year. 2013 predictions to come later this week, after SI arrives in my mailbox.

Especially

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Sports Illustrated prediction Baseballrelated.com prediction Actual Results
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67) 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66) 1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (93-69) 2. Baltimore Orioles (93-69)
3. Boston Red Sox (91-71) 3. Boston Red Sox (90-72) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (82-80) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (73-89)
5. Baltimore Orioles (63-99) 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-94) 5. Boston Red Sox (69-93)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (93-69) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72) 1. Detroit Tigers (88-74)
2. Kansas City Royals (82-80) 2. Chicago White Sox (82-80) 2. Chicago White Sox

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(85-77)

3. Cleveland Indians (80-82) 3. Cleveland Indians (76-86) 3. Kansas City Royals (72-90)
4. Minnesota Twins (72-90) 4. Minnesota Twins (73-89) 4. Cleveland Indians (68-94)
5. Chicago White Sox (67-95) 5. Kansas City Royals (70-92) 5. Minnesota Twins (66-96)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (97-65) 1. Texas Rangers (94-68) 1. Oakland Athletics (94-68)
2. Texas Rangers (94-68) 2. L.A. Angels (84-78) 2. Texas Rangers (93-69)
3. Oakland Athletics (68-94) 3. Oakland Athletics (76-86) 4. L.A. Angels (89-73)
4. Seattle Mariners (64-98) 4. Seattle Mariners (65-97) 4. Seattle Mariners (75-87)
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (94-68) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (100-62) 1. Washington Nationals (98-64)
2. Miami Marlins (89-73) 2. Atlanta Braves (90-72) 2. Atlanta Braves (94-68)
3. Washington Nationals (84-78) 3. N.Y. Mets (78-84) 3. Miami Marlins (69-93)
4. Atlanta Braves (82-80) 4. Washington Nationals (76-86) 4. N.Y. Mets (74-88)
5. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 5. Miami Marlins (75-87) 5. Miami Marlins (69-93)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (89-73) 1. Milwaukee Brewers (90-72) 1. Cincinnati Reds (97-65)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 3. Cincinnati Reds (83-79) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) 4. Chicago Cubs (72-90) 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (79-83)
5. Chicago Cubs (66-96) 5. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) 5. Chicago Cubs (61-101)
6. Houston Astros (57-105) 6. Houston Astros (63-99) 6. Houston Astros (55-107)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (90-72) 1. San Francisco Giants (88-74) 1. San Francisco Giants (94-68)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) 2. L.A. Dodgers (86-76)
3. L.A. Dodgers (83-79) 3. L.A. Dodgers (81-81) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81)
4. Colorado Rockies (79-83) 4. San Diego Padres (77-85) 4. San Diego Padres (76-86)
5. San Diego Padres (70-92) 5. Colorado Rockies (76-86) 5. Colorado Rockies (64-98)