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2017 predictions

Time for this thing again, where we use a quick-and-dirty formula from a dusty old Bill James Baseball Abstract and compare them to the predictions from Sports Illustrated.

This year, that august publication has predicted the Dodgers defeating the Indians in the World Series. If that works out as well as last year’s prediction, then the Indians will be the 2017 champions, and the Dodgers will not even be the best National League team in the state of California.

In actual news related to the reason this site was created: I can’t predict any baseball-related program activities in 2017, due to my continued unemployment, and Levi’s eternal busy-ness. (I do note that he got a dog last year — something else besides his job that’s keeping him busy — and named it Jenkins. On this blog, we can pretend the pupper is named after Ferguson Jenkins.)

Sports Illustrated prediction Baseballrelated.com prediction
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (95-67) 1. Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75) 2. Boston Red Sox (88-74)
3. N.Y. Yankees (83-79) 3. Baltimore Orioles (86-76)
4. Tampa Bay Rays (81-81) 4. N.Y. Yankees (85-77)
5. Baltimore Orioles (79-83) 5. Tampa Bay Rays (72-90)
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (96-66) 1. Cleveland Indians (90-72)
2. Detroit Tigers (83-79) 2. Kansas City Royals (86-76)
3. Kansas City Royals (73-89) 3. Detroit Tigers (82-80)
4. Minnesota Twins (69-93) 4. Chicago White Sox (77-85)
5. Chicago White Sox (65-97) 5. Minnesota Twins (67-95)
AL West
1. Houston Astros (91-71) 1. Texas Rangers (93-69)
2. Texas Rangers (89-73) 2. Houston Astros (85-77)
3. Seattle Mariners (88-74) 3. Seattle Mariners (83-79)
4. L.A. Angels (72-90) 4. L.A. Angels (78-84)
5. Oakland Athletics (67-95) 5. Oakland Athletics (69-93)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (91-71) 2. Washington Nationals (91-71)
2. N.Y. Mets (90-72) 2. N.Y. Mets (88-74)
3. Atlanta Braves (78-84) 3. Miami Marlins (76-86)
4. Miami Marlins (77-85) 4. Atlanta Braves (68-94)
5. Philadelphia Phillies (74-88) 4. Philadelphia Phillies (68-94)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (95-67) 1. Chicago Cubs (101-61)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (85-77) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (83-79) 3. Pittsburgh Pirates (85-77)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (70-92) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (71-91)
5. Cincinnati Reds (64-98) 5. Cincinnati Reds (67-95)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69) 1. L.A. Dodgers (91-71)
2. San Francisco Giants (87-75) 2. San Francisco Giants (86-76)
3. Colorado Rockies (83-79) 3. Colorado Rockies (73-89)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (72-90)
5. San Diego Padres (60-102) 5. San Diego Padres (70-92)

2016 predictions in review

As you may recall, last year Sports Illustrated picked the Cubs to win the National League pennant!…and then lose to the Astros in the World Series. You may notice that the Astros were not even the best American League team in the state of Texas in 2016.

Not that the baseballrelated.com formula did much better, with our prediction of a 3rd-place finish for the Cubs. But it only claims to be the product of me punching numbers into the Calculator app on the ol’ iPhone, rather than being the product of any sort of analysis, or even thought.

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual Results
AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays (93-69) 1. Toronto Blue Jays (90-72) 1. Boston Red Sox (93-69)
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) 2. Baltimore Orioles (86-76) 2. Baltimore Orioles (89-73)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) 2. N.Y. Yankees (86-76) 2. Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)
4. N.Y. Yankees (83-79) 4. Tampa Bay Rays (79-83) 4. N.Y. Yankees (84-78)
5. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) 5. Boston Red Sox (76-86) 5. Tampa Bay Rays (68-94)
AL Central
1. Kansas City Royals (90-72) 1. Kansas City Royals (93-69) 1. Cleveland Indians (94-67)
2. Cleveland Indians (83-79) 2. Cleveland Indians (82-80) 2. Detroit Tigers (86-75)
3. Detroit Tigers (80-82) 3. Detroit Tigers (79-83) 3. Kansas City Royals (81-81)
4. Chicago White Sox (77-85) 3. Minnesota Twins (79-83) 4. Chicago White Sox (78-84)
5. Minnesota Twins (74-88) 5. Chicago White Sox (75-87) 5. Minnesota Twins (59-103)
AL West
1. Houston Astros (94-68) 1. L.A. Angels (89-73) 1. Texas Rangers (95-67)
2. Texas Rangers (90-72) 2. Houston Astros (81-81) 2. Seattle Mariners (86-76)
3. Seattle Mariners (82-80) 2. Texas Rangers (81-81) 3. Houston Astros (84-78)
4. L.A. Angels (72-90) 4. Seattle Mariners (80-82) 4. L.A. Angels (74-88)
5. Oakland Athletics (63-99) 5. Oakland Athletics (75-87) 5. Oakland Athletics (69-93)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets (95-67) 1. Washington Nationals (87-75) 1. Washington Nationals (95-67)
2. Washington Nationals (86-76) 2. N.Y. Mets (86-76) 2. N.Y. Mets (87-75)
3. Miami Marlins (78-84) 3. Miami Marlins (73-89) 3. Miami Marlins (79-82)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (63-99) 4. Atlanta Braves (71-91) 4. Philadelphia Phillies (71-91)
5. Atlanta Braves (60-102) 5. Philadelphia Phillies (66-96) 5. Atlanta Braves (68-93)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (99-63) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65) 1. Chicago Cubs (103-58)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (95-67) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (86-76)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (87-75) 3. Chicago Cubs (89-73) 3. Pittsburgh Pirates (78-83)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (70-92) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (73-89) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (73-89)
5. Cincinnati Reds (68-94) 5. Cincinnati Reds (68-94) 5. Cincinnati Reds (68-94)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69) 1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69) 1. L.A. Dodgers (91-71)
2. San Francisco Giants (88-74) 2. San Francisco Giants (85-77) 2. San Francisco Giants (87-75)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81) 3. San Diego Padres (75-87) 3. Colorado Rockies (75-87)
4. San Diego Padres (73-89) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (69-93)
4. Colorado Rockies (73-89) 5. Colorado Rockies (67-95) 5. San Diego Padres (68-94)

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2016 predictions

Time once again for our annual exercise in proving that using a formula that only takes into account number of wins in past seasons is just about as accurate, if not more so, than “expert” human prediction.

At least this year, Sports Illustrated acknowledged that they almost never get the World Series teams right, so this year they’ve used their own formula to declare that the Series will be Astros defeating the Cubs.

But they did print a great article on the Rays’ most exciting player Kevin Kiermaier in the magazine a couple weeks ago (not available online yet), so I’ll forgive them. (Chris Archer is great, but the only exciting thing about him is his hair.)

Will there be any baseball-related program activities in 2016, given that our previous major activities were in 2004 and 2010 and it seems to fit a pattern? Unfortunately, my career is in a bit of flux (that is, April 18 is my last day of employment at my current job), and Levi’s career is such that he can’t take as much time off as he’d like. But please stay tuned.

Sports Illustrated prediction Baseballrelated.com prediction
AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays (93-69) 1. Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) 2. Baltimore Orioles (86-76)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) 2. N.Y. Yankees (86-76)
4. N.Y. Yankees (83-79) 4. Tampa Bay Rays (79-83)
5. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) 4. Boston Red Sox (76-86)
AL Central
1. Kansas City Royals (90-72) 1. Kansas City Royals (93-69)
2. Cleveland Indians (83-79) 2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Detroit Tigers (80-82) 3. Detroit Tigers (79-83)
4. Chicago White Sox (77-85) 3. Minnesota Twins (79-83)
5. Minnesota Twins (74-88) 5. Chicago White Sox (75-87)
AL West
1. Houston Astros (94-68) 1. L.A. Angels (89-73)
2. Texas Rangers (90-72) 2. Houston Astros (81-81)
3. Seattle Mariners (82-80) 2. Texas Rangers (81-81)
4. L.A. Angels (72-90) 4. Seattle Mariners (80-82)
5. Oakland Athletics (63-99) 5. Oakland Athletics (75-87)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets (95-67) 2. Washington Nationals (87-75)
2. Washington Nationals (86-76) 2. N.Y. Mets (86-76)
3. Miami Marlins (78-84) 3. Miami Marlins (73-89)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (63-99) 4. Atlanta Braves (71-91)
5. Atlanta Braves (60-102) 5. Philadelphia Phillies (66-96)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (99-63) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (95-67)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (87-75) 3. Chicago Cubs (89-73)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (70-92) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (73-89)
5. Cincinnati Reds (68-94) 5. Cincinnati Reds (68-94)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69) 1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69)
2. San Francisco Giants (88-74) 2. San Francisco Giants (85-77)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81) 3. San Diego Padres (75-87)
4. San Diego Padres (73-89) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88)
4. Colorado Rockies (73-89) 5. Colorado Rockies (67-95)

2015 predictions in review

Hey, remember how the Sports Illustrated World Series prediction for 2015 was Indians vs. Nationals? And how they had the Red Sox winning the AL East? And the Mariners winning the AL West? Ha ha ha ha (pausing to wipe away tears of derision)!

What’s that? Are you scanning down to see where the baseballrelated.com formula had the Cubs finishing? Hey, look over there — a big distracting thing!

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual Results
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (89-73) 1. Baltimore Orioles (92-70) 1. Toronto Blue Jays (93-69)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78) 2. N.Y. Yankees (84-78) 2. N.Y. Yankees (87-75)
3. Baltimore Orioles (82-80) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80) 3. Baltimore Orioles (81-81)
4. New York Yankees (77-85) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82) 4. Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (74-88) 4. Boston Red Sox (80-82) 5. Boston Red Sox (78-84)
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (91-71) 1. Kansas City Royals (95-67)
2. Detroit Tigers (87-75) 2. Kansas City Royals (88-74) 2. Minnesota Twins (83-79)
3. Chicago White Sox (83-79) 3. Cleveland Indians (87-75) 3. Cleveland Indians (81-80)
4. Kansas City Royals (78-84) 4. Chicago White Sox (70-92) 4. Chicago White Sox (76-86)
5. Minnesota Twins (67-95) 5. Minnesota Twins (69-93) 5. Detroit Tigers (74-87)
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners (95-67) 1. L.A. Angels (91-71) 1. Texas Rangers (88-74)
2. L.A. Angels (92-70) 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71) 2. Houston Astros (86-76)
3. Oakland Athletics (81-81) 3. Seattle Mariners (82-80) 3. L.A. Angels (85-77)
4. Texas Rangers (73-89) 4. Texas Rangers (75-87) 4. Seattle Mariners (76-86)
5. Houston Astros (72-90) 5. Houston Astros (64-98) 5. Oakland Athletics (68-94)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (99-63) 1. Washington Nationals (93-69) 1. N.Y. Mets (90-72)
2. Miami Marlins (85-77) 2. Atlanta Braves (85-77) 2. Washington Nationals (83-79)
3. N.Y. Mets (82-80) 3. N.Y. Mets (77-85) 3. Miami Marlins (71-91)
4. Atlanta Braves (71-91) 4. Philadelphia Phillies (73-89) 4. Atlanta Braves (67-95)
5. Philadelphia Phillies (63-99) 5. Miami Marlins (72-90) 5. Philadelphia Phillies (63-99)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (92-70) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (100-62)
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (90-72) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (98-64)
3. Chicago Cubs (82-80) 3. Cincinnati Reds (81-81) 3. Chicago Cubs (97-65)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (74-88) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (68-94)
5. Cincinnati Reds (73-89) 5. Chicago Cubs (71-91) 5. Cincinnati Reds (64-98)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (95-67) 1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69) 1. L.A. Dodgers (92-70)
2. San Francisco Giants (84-78) 2. San Francisco Giants (84-78) 2. San Francisco Giants (84-78)
3. San Diego Padres (83-79) 3. San Diego Padres (77-85) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83)
4. Colorado Rockies (69-93) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (70-92) 4. San Diego Padres (74-88)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (65-97) 5. Colorado Rockies (69-93) 5. Colorado Rockies (68-94)