2016 predictions

Time once again for our annual exercise in proving that using a formula that only takes into account number of wins in past seasons is just about as accurate, if not more so, than “expert” human prediction.

At least this year, Sports Illustrated acknowledged that they almost never get the World Series teams right, so this year they’ve used their own formula to declare that the Series will be Astros defeating the Cubs.

But they did print a great article on the Rays’ most exciting player Kevin Kiermaier in the magazine a couple weeks ago (not available online yet), so I’ll forgive them. (Chris Archer is great, but the only exciting thing about him is his hair.)

Will there be any baseball-related program activities in 2016, given that our previous major activities were in 2004 and 2010 and it seems to fit a pattern? Unfortunately, my career is in a bit of flux (that is, April 18 is my last day of employment at my current job), and Levi’s career is such that he can’t take as much time off as he’d like. But please stay tuned.

Sports Illustrated prediction Baseballrelated.com prediction
AL East
1. Toronto Blue Jays (93-69) 1. Toronto Blue Jays (90-72)
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) 2. Baltimore Orioles (86-76)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) 2. N.Y. Yankees (86-76)
4. N.Y. Yankees (83-79) 4. Tampa Bay Rays (79-83)
5. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) 4. Boston Red Sox (76-86)
AL Central
1. Kansas City Royals (90-72) 1. Kansas City Royals (93-69)
2. Cleveland Indians (83-79) 2. Cleveland Indians (82-80)
3. Detroit Tigers (80-82) 3. Detroit Tigers (79-83)
4. Chicago White Sox (77-85) 3. Minnesota Twins (79-83)
5. Minnesota Twins (74-88) 5. Chicago White Sox (75-87)
AL West
1. Houston Astros (94-68) 1. L.A. Angels (89-73)
2. Texas Rangers (90-72) 2. Houston Astros (81-81)
3. Seattle Mariners (82-80) 2. Texas Rangers (81-81)
4. L.A. Angels (72-90) 4. Seattle Mariners (80-82)
5. Oakland Athletics (63-99) 5. Oakland Athletics (75-87)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets (95-67) 2. Washington Nationals (87-75)
2. Washington Nationals (86-76) 2. N.Y. Mets (86-76)
3. Miami Marlins (78-84) 3. Miami Marlins (73-89)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (63-99) 4. Atlanta Braves (71-91)
5. Atlanta Braves (60-102) 5. Philadelphia Phillies (66-96)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (99-63) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (95-67)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (87-75) 3. Chicago Cubs (89-73)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (70-92) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (73-89)
5. Cincinnati Reds (68-94) 5. Cincinnati Reds (68-94)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69) 1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69)
2. San Francisco Giants (88-74) 2. San Francisco Giants (85-77)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81) 3. San Diego Padres (75-87)
4. San Diego Padres (73-89) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88)
4. Colorado Rockies (73-89) 5. Colorado Rockies (67-95)

2015 predictions in review

Hey, remember how the Sports Illustrated World Series prediction for 2015 was Indians vs. Nationals? And how they had the Red Sox winning the AL East? And the Mariners winning the AL West? Ha ha ha ha (pausing to wipe away tears of derision)!

What’s that? Are you scanning down to see where the baseballrelated.com formula had the Cubs finishing? Hey, look over there — a big distracting thing!

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual Results
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (89-73) 1. Baltimore Orioles (92-70) 1. Toronto Blue Jays (93-69)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78) 2. N.Y. Yankees (84-78) 2. N.Y. Yankees (87-75)
3. Baltimore Orioles (82-80) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80) 3. Baltimore Orioles (81-81)
4. New York Yankees (77-85) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82) 4. Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (74-88) 4. Boston Red Sox (80-82) 5. Boston Red Sox (78-84)
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (91-71) 1. Kansas City Royals (95-67)
2. Detroit Tigers (87-75) 2. Kansas City Royals (88-74) 2. Minnesota Twins (83-79)
3. Chicago White Sox (83-79) 3. Cleveland Indians (87-75) 3. Cleveland Indians (81-80)
4. Kansas City Royals (78-84) 4. Chicago White Sox (70-92) 4. Chicago White Sox (76-86)
5. Minnesota Twins (67-95) 5. Minnesota Twins (69-93) 5. Detroit Tigers (74-87)
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners (95-67) 1. L.A. Angels (91-71) 1. Texas Rangers (88-74)
2. L.A. Angels (92-70) 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71) 2. Houston Astros (86-76)
3. Oakland Athletics (81-81) 3. Seattle Mariners (82-80) 3. L.A. Angels (85-77)
4. Texas Rangers (73-89) 4. Texas Rangers (75-87) 4. Seattle Mariners (76-86)
5. Houston Astros (72-90) 5. Houston Astros (64-98) 5. Oakland Athletics (68-94)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (99-63) 1. Washington Nationals (93-69) 1. N.Y. Mets (90-72)
2. Miami Marlins (85-77) 2. Atlanta Braves (85-77) 2. Washington Nationals (83-79)
3. N.Y. Mets (82-80) 3. N.Y. Mets (77-85) 3. Miami Marlins (71-91)
4. Atlanta Braves (71-91) 4. Philadelphia Phillies (73-89) 4. Atlanta Braves (67-95)
5. Philadelphia Phillies (63-99) 5. Miami Marlins (72-90) 5. Philadelphia Phillies (63-99)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (92-70) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (100-62)
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (90-72) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (98-64)
3. Chicago Cubs (82-80) 3. Cincinnati Reds (81-81) 3. Chicago Cubs (97-65)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (74-88) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (68-94)
5. Cincinnati Reds (73-89) 5. Chicago Cubs (71-91) 5. Cincinnati Reds (64-98)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (95-67) 1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69) 1. L.A. Dodgers (92-70)
2. San Francisco Giants (84-78) 2. San Francisco Giants (84-78) 2. San Francisco Giants (84-78)
3. San Diego Padres (83-79) 3. San Diego Padres (77-85) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83)
4. Colorado Rockies (69-93) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (70-92) 4. San Diego Padres (74-88)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (65-97) 5. Colorado Rockies (69-93) 5. Colorado Rockies (68-94)

2015 predictions

As usual, making use of a quick-and-dirty formula from an old Bill James Baseball Abstract for what I’ve labeled the Baseballrelated.com prediction.

The Sports Illustrated World Series matchup is the Indians vs. Nationals, with Cleveland prevailing. Lotsa luck, Tribe!

Sports Illustrated prediction Baseballrelated.com prediction
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (89-73) 1. Baltimore Orioles (92-70)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78) 2. N.Y. Yankees (84-78)
3. Baltimore Orioles (82-80) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (82-80)
4. New York Yankees (77-85) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (80-82)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (74-88) 4. Boston Red Sox (80-82)
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (91-71)
2. Detroit Tigers (87-75) 2. Kansas City Royals (88-74)
3. Chicago White Sox (83-79) 3. Cleveland Indians (87-75)
4. Kansas City Royals (78-84) 4. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
5. Minnesota Twins (67-95) 5. Minnesota Twins (69-93)
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners (95-67) 1. L.A. Angels (91-71)
2. L.A. Angels (92-70) 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71)
3. Oakland Athletics (81-81) 3. Seattle Mariners (82-80)
4. Texas Rangers (73-89) 4. Texas Rangers (75-87)
5. Houston Astros (72-90) 5. Houston Astros (64-98)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (99-63) 1. Washington Nationals (93-69)
2. Miami Marlins (85-77) 2. Atlanta Braves (85-77)
3. N.Y. Mets (82-80) 3. N.Y. Mets (77-85)
4. Atlanta Braves (71-91) 4. Philadelphia Phillies (73-89)
5. Philadelphia Phillies (63-99) 5. Miami Marlins (72-90)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (92-70)
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (90-72)
3. Chicago Cubs (82-80) 3. Cincinnati Reds (81-81)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (74-88) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83)
5. Cincinnati Reds (73-89) 5. Chicago Cubs (71-91)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (95-67) 1. L.A. Dodgers (93-69)
2. San Francisco Giants (84-78) 2. San Francisco Giants (84-78)
3. San Diego Padres (83-79) 3. San Diego Padres (77-85)
4. Colorado Rockies (69-93) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (70-92)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (65-97) 5. Colorado Rockies (69-93)

2014 predictions in review

I told you that Sports Illustrated’s prediction that the Rays would win the AL East was the kiss of death! Now we have no Hope, no Jobs, and no Maddon — at least we have Cash.

Other obvious disappointments: Red Sox, Rangers, Reds.

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual Results
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (95-67) 1. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) 1. Baltimore Orioles (96-66)
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) 2. Baltimore Orioles (88-74) 2. New York Yankees (84-78)
3. N.Y. Yankees (82-80) 2. Boston Red Sox (88-74) 3. Toronto Blue Jays (77-85)
4. Baltimore Orioles (78-84) 2. N.Y. Yankees (88-74) 4. Tampa Bay Rays (77-85)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (73-89) 5. Toronto Blue Jays (74-88) 5. Boston Red Sox (71-91)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72)
2. Kansas City Royals (88-74) 2. Cleveland Indians (84-78) 2. Kansas City Royals (89-73)
3. Cleveland Indians (82-80) 3. Kansas City Royals (81-81) 3. Cleveland Indians (85-77)
4. Chicago White Sox (65-97) 4. Chicago White Sox (70-92) 4. Chicago White Sox (73-69)
5. Minnesota Twins (62-100) 5. Minnesota Twins (66-96) 5. Minnesota Twins (70-92)
AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (94-68) 1. Oakland Athletics (95-67) 1. L.A. Angels (98-64)
2. Texas Rangers (90-72) 2. Texas Rangers (92-70) 2. Oakland Athletics (88-74)
3. L.A. Angels (78-84) 3. L.A. Angels (82-80) 3. Seattle Mariners (87-75)
4. Seattle Mariners (76-86) 4. Seattle Mariners (72-90) 4. Houston Astros (70-92)
5. Houston Astros (57-105) 5. Houston Astros (52-110) 5. Texas Rangers (67-95)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (96-66) 1. Atlanta Braves (95-67) 1. Washington Nationals (96-66)
2. Atlanta Braves (84-78) 2. Washington Nationals (90-72) 2. Atlanta Braves (79-83)
3. N.Y. Mets (73-89) 3. Philadelphia Phillies (76-86) 2. N.Y. Mets (79-83)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (67-95) 4. N.Y. Mets (74-88) 4. Miami Marlins (77-85)
5. Miami Marlins (65-97) 5. Miami Marlins (64-98) 5. Philadelphia Phillies (73-89)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (96-66) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (94-68) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
2. Cincinnati Reds (91-71) 2. Cincinnati Reds (92-70) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (83-79) 3. Pittsburgh Pirates (89-73) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (82-80)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) 4. Cincinnati Reds (76-86)
5. Chicago Cubs (62-100) 5. Chicago Cubs (64-98) 5. Chicago Cubs (73-89)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (99-63) 1. L.A. Dodgers (90-72) 1. L.A. Dodgers (94-68)
2. San Francisco Giants (92-70) 2. San Francisco Giants (82-80) 2. San Francisco Giants (88-74)
3. San Diego Padres (84-78) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81) 3. San Diego Padres (77-85)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83) 4. San Diego Padres (76-86) 4. Colorado Rockies (66-96)
5. Colorado Rockies (76-86) 5. Colorado Rockies (71-91) 5. Arizona Diamondbacks (64-98)

2014 predictions

The notes about this site at the beginning of the 2013 predictions post are still applicable.

Once again, Sports Illustrated has picked the Rays to win the AL East. Noooo, that’s the kiss of death!

Their World Series matchup is A’s vs. Nationals, with the Nationals winning. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Sports Illustrated prediction Baseballrelated.com prediction
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (95-67) 1. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71)
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) 2. Baltimore Orioles (88-74)
3. N.Y. Yankees (82-80) 2. Boston Red Sox (88-74)
4. Baltimore Orioles (78-84) 2. N.Y. Yankees (88-74)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (73-89) 5. Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (92-70) 1. Detroit Tigers (92-70)
2. Kansas City Royals (88-74) 2. Cleveland Indians (84-78)
3. Cleveland Indians (82-80) 3. Kansas City Royals (81-81)
4. Chicago White Sox (65-97) 4. Chicago White Sox (70-92)
5. Minnesota Twins (62-100) 5. Minnesota Twins (66-96)
AL West
1. Oakland Athletics (94-68) 1. Oakland Athletics (95-67)
2. Texas Rangers (90-72) 2. Texas Rangers (92-70)
3. L.A. Angels (78-84) 3. L.A. Angels (82-80)
4. Seattle Mariners (76-86) 4. Seattle Mariners (72-90)
5. Houston Astros (57-105) 5. Houston Astros (52-110)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (96-66) 2. Atlanta Braves (95-67)
2. Atlanta Braves (84-78) 2. Washington Nationals (90-72)
3. N.Y. Mets (73-89) 3. Philadelphia Phillies (76-86)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (67-95) 4. N.Y. Mets (74-88)
5. Miami Marlins (65-97) 5. Miami Marlins (64-98)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (96-66) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (94-68)
2. Cincinnati Reds (91-71) 2. Cincinnati Reds (92-70)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (83-79) 3. Pittsburgh Pirates (89-73)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (79-83) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85)
5. Chicago Cubs (62-100) 5. Chicago Cubs (64-98)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (99-63) 1. L.A. Dodgers (90-72)
2. San Francisco Giants (92-70) 2. San Francisco Giants (82-80)
3. San Diego Padres (84-78) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83) 4. San Diego Padres (76-86)
5. Colorado Rockies (76-86) 5. Colorado Rockies (71-91)

The 2013 predictions in review

As if you needed another reminder of how surprising the Red Sox’s 2013 season was.

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual Results
AL East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66) 1. Boston Red Sox (97-65)
2. Toronto Blue Jays (91-71) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72) 2. Tampa Bay Rays (92-71)
3. N.Y. Yankees (82-80) 3. Baltimore Orioles (85-77) 3. Baltimore Orioles (85-77)
3. Baltimore Orioles (82-80) 4. Boston Red Sox (76-86) 3. New York Yankees (85-77)
5. Boston Red Sox (77-85) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (76-86) 5. Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (94-68) 1. Detroit Tigers (90-72) 1. Detroit Tigers (93-69)
2. Kansas City Royals (83-79) 2. Chicago White Sox (83-79) 2. Cleveland Indians (92-70)
3. Chicago White Sox (81-81) 3. Cleveland Indians (72-90) 3. Kansas City Royals (86-76)
4. Cleveland Indians (75-87) 3. Kansas City Royals (72-90) 4. Minnesota Twins (66-96)
5. Minnesota Twins (60-102) 5. Minnesota Twins (65-97) 5. Chicago White Sox (63-99)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (95-67) 1. Texas Rangers (94-68) 1. Oakland Athletics (96-66)
2. Texas Rangers (91-71) 2. L.A. Angels (88-74) 2. Texas Rangers (91-72)
3. Oakland Athletics (90-72) 2. Oakland Athletics (88-74) 3. Los Angeles Angels (78-84)
4. Seattle Mariners (78-84) 4. Seattle Mariners (72-90) 4. Seattle Mariners (71-91)
5. Houston Astros (50-112) 5. Houston Astros (55-107) 5. Houston Astros (51-111)
NL East
1. Washington Nationals (100-62) 1. Atlanta Braves (92-70) 1. Atlanta Braves (96-66)
2. Atlanta Braves (95-67) 1. Washington Nationals (92-70) 2. Washington Nationals (86-76)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) 3. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) 3. N.Y. Mets (74-88)
4. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 4. N.Y. Mets (75-87) 4. Philadelphia Phillies (73-89)
5. Miami Marlins (60-102) 5. Miami Marlins (70-92) 5. Miami Marlins (62-100)
NL Central
1. Cincinnati Reds (95-67) 1. Cincinnati Reds (91-71) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (97-65)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) 2. Pittsburgh Pirates (94-68)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (87-73) 3. Cincinnati Reds (90-72)
4. Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86) 4. Pittsburgh Pirates (77-85) 4. Milwaukee Brewers (74-88)
5. Chicago Cubs (67-95) 5. Chicago Cubs (64-98) 5. Chicago Cubs (66-96)
NL West
1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. San Francisco Giants (91-71) 1. L.A. Dodgers (92-70)
2. L.A. Dodgers (90-72) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81)
3. Arizona Diamondbacks (79-83) 2. L.A. Dodgers (85-77) 3. San Diego Padres (76-86)
4. San Diego Padres (71-91) 4. San Diego Padres (74-88) 3. San Francisco Giants (76-86)
5. Colorado Rockies (68-94) 5. Colorado Rockies (67-95) 5. Colorado Rockies (74-88)