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The 2010 predictions in review

Once again, it’s time to look back and see how two entities did with their predictions for the 2010 season: Sports Illustrated, with their decades of baseball expertise, and this website, with a simple formula I have from an old Bill James Abstract and a deep desire to make fun of baseball players’ names.

In the “actual results” columns, for the most part, the “Player Who Should Have Been Watched” was the team’s leader in the Runs Above Replacement Player statistic — which I only vaguely understand, but fortunately, there are websites aplenty that don’t make you understand it, they just print the results. In a few cases, though, it seemed obvious that someone else (or something else) should have gotten all the scrutiny.

Sports Illustrated Baseballrelated.com Actual results
Prediction Player to Watch Prediction Player to Watch Prediction Player Who Should Have Been Watched
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (100-62) Javier Vazquez (RHP) 1. N.Y. Yankees (98-64) Derek Jeter (SS) 1. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66) Evan Longoria (3B)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (95-67) Jeff Niemann (RHP) 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67) Kevin Youkilis (1B) 2. New York Yankees (95-67) Robinson Cano (2B)
3. Boston Red Sox (93-69) Mike Cameron (CF) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (88-74) Pansy the Wuss-Wuss Fish Who Can’t Keep It Up (mascot) 3.

Boston Red Sox (89-73)

Adrian Beltre (3B)
4. Baltimore Orioles (76-86) Nick Markakis (RF) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) Marc Rzepczynski (LHP) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) Jose Bautista (RF)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (64-98) Ricky Romero (LHP) 5. Baltimore Orioles (65-97) Cesar Izturis (SS) 5. Baltimore Orioles (66-96) Luke Scott (1B)
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins (88-74) Orlando Hudson (2B) 1. Minnesota Twins (87-75) The Minnesota Weather (environment) 1. Minnesota Twins (94-68) Joe Mauer (DH)
2. Detroit Tigers (82-80) Johnny Damon (LF) 2. Chicago White Sox (82-80) Gordon Beckham (2B) 2. Chicago White Sox (88-64) Paul Konerko (1B)
3. Chicago White Sox (79-83) Jake Peavy (RHP) 3. Detroit Tigers (82-80) Johnny Damon (LF) 3. Detroit Tigers (81-81) Armando Galarraga (RHP) — should have been watched a little more carefully by Jim Joyce.
4. Cleveland Indians (66-96) Fausto Carmona (RHP) 4. Cleveland Indians (70-92) Fausto Carmona (RHP) 4. Cleveland Indians (69-93) Shin-Soo Choo (RF)
5. Kansas City Royals (65-97) Zack Greinke (RHP) 5. Kansas City Royals (68-94) Zack Greinke (RHP) 5. Kansas City Royals (67-95) Royals Hall of Fame at Kaufmann Stadium (exhibit)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (89-73) Ervin Santana (RHP) 1. L.A. Angels (98-64) Jered Weaver (RHP) 1. Texas Rangers (90-72) Josh Hamilton (RF)
2. Texas Rangers (87-75) Josh Hamilton (RF) 2. Texas Rangers (84-78) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C) 2. Oakland Athletics (81-81) Dallas Braden (LHP) — should have been watched by more than 12,228 on May 9th.
3. Seattle Mariners (83-79) Milton Bradley (LF) 3. Seattle Mariners (77-85) David Aardsma (RHP) 3. L.A. Angels (80-82) Kendry Morales (1B) — should have been watched more carefully to make sure he doesn’t break his leg jumping onto the plate after hitting a home run.
4. Oakland Athletics (79-83) Ben Sheets (RHP) 4. Oakland Athletics (75-87) Coco Crisp (CF) 4. Seattle Mariners (61-101) Ichiro Suzuki (RF)
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (100-62) Cole Hamels (LHP) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) Placido Polanco (3B) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65) Roy Halladay (RHP) — should have been watched in case he threw a perfect game in the regular season and a no-hitter in the postseason.
2. Atlanta Braves (89-73) Billy Wagner (LHP) 2. Florida Marlins (86-76) John Baker (C) 2. Atlanta Braves (91-71) Brian McCann (C)
3. Florida Marlins (82-80) Ricky Nolasco (RHP) 3. Atlanta Braves (81-81) Jair Jurrjens (RHP) 3. Florida Marlins (80-82) Dan Uggla (2B)
4. N.Y. Mets (79-83) Daniel Murphy (1B) 4. N.Y. Mets (76-86) Angel Pagan (OF) 4. N.Y. Mets (79-83) Angel Pagan (OF)
5. Washington Nationals (67-95) Nyjer Morgan (CF) 5. Washington Nationals (59-103) Nyjer Morgan (CF) 5. Washington Nationals (69-93) Stephen Strasburg (RHP) — okay, no “should have been” here; was watched, by everyone, everywhere.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals (87-75) Colby Rasmus (CF) 1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) Albert Pujols (1B) 1. Cincinnati Reds (91-71) Joey Votto (1B)
2. Chicago Cubs (81-81) Geovany Soto (C) 2. Chicago Cubs (88-74) Carlos Zambrano (RHP) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (86-76) Albert Pujols (1B)
3. Cincinnati Reds (79-83) Homer Bailey (RHP) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79) Trevor Hoffman (RHP) 3. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) Rickie Weeks (2B)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) Alcides Escobar (SS) 4. Houston Astros (78-84) Roy Oswalt (RHP) 4. Houston Astros (76-86) Michael Bourn (OF)
5. Houston Astros (69-93) Brett Myers (RHP) 5. Cincinnati Reds (77-85) Homer Bailey (RHP) 5. Chicago Cubs (75-87) Marlon Byrd (OF)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97) Andrew McCutchen (CF) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98) The Primanti Sandwich (concession) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (57-105) The Pittsburgh Skyline As Seen from PNC Park (view)
NL West
1. Colorado Rockies (91-71) Todd Helton (1B) 1. L.A. Dodgers (91-71) Manny Ramirez (LF) 1. San Francisco Giants (92-70) Brian Wilson (RHP) — should have been watched for beard-related shoe-polish purchases.
2. L.A. Dodgers (87-75) Chad Billingsley (RHP) 2. Colorado Rockies (86-76) Huston Street (RHP) 2. San Diego Padres (90-72) Adrian Gonzalez (1B)
3. San Francisco Giants (83-79) Brian Wilson (RHP) 3. San Francisco Giants (83-79) Barry Zito (LHP) 3. Colorado Rockies (83-79) Troy Tulowitzki (SS)
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80) Mark Reynolds (3B) 4. Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88) Augie Ojeda (IF) 4. L.A. Dodgers (80-82) McCourt vs. McCourt (trial)
5. San Diego Padres (66-96) Kyle Blanks (LF) 5. San Diego Padres (71-91) Will Venable (RF) 5. Arizona Diamondbacks (65-97) Justin Upton (RF)

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