Seasonal statistics

As has become baseballrelated.com custom, it’s time to look back at the predictions for the 2006 regular season. This year, not only did we have the Sports Illustrated predictions, but I had also used a simple Bill James formula to make advanced predictions way back on the first day of November 2005.

So…uh, well, nobody foresaw the success of certain AL Central teams, or the non-success of a certain NL East team that’s not in the playoffs for the first time since what seems like when Hank Aaron was on the team.

Nov. 1, 2005 prediction Sports Illustrated Actual result

NL East

Atlanta Braves (90-72) Atlanta Braves New York Mets (97-65)
Philadelphia Phillies (86-76) New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies (85-77)
Florida Marlins (83-79) Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves (79-83)
New York Mets (80-82) Washington Nationals Florida Marlins (78-84)
Washington Nationals (78-84) Florida Marlins Washington Nationals (71-91)


NL Central

St. Louis Cardinals (97-65) St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals (83-78)
Houston Astros (88-74) Milwaukee Brewers Houston Astros (82-80)
Chicago Cubs (82-80) Houston Astros Cincinnati Reds (80-82)
Milwaukee Brewers (78-84) Chicago Cubs Milwaukee
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Brewers (75-87)
Cincinnati Reds (76-86) Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
Pittsburgh Pirates (72-90) Cincinnati Reds Chicago Cubs (66-96)


NL West

San Diego Padres (83-79) L.A. Dodgers San Diego Padres (88-74)
San Francisco Giants (81-81) San Francisco Giants L.A. Dodgers (88-74)
L.A. Dodgers (79-83) San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants (76-85)
Arizona Diamondbacks (72-90) Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86)
Colorado Rockies (71-91) Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies (76-86)


AL East

New York Yankees (93-69) New York Yankees New York Yankees (97-65)
Boston Red Sox (91-71) Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays (87-75)
Toronto Blue Jays (77-85) Toronto Blue Jays Boston Red Sox (86-76)
Baltimore Orioles (76-86) Tampa Bay Devil Rays Baltimore Orioles (70-92)
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (71-91) Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Devil Rays (61-101)


AL Central

Chicago White Sox (90-72) Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins (96-66)
Cleveland Indians (87-75) Cleveland Indians Detroit Tigers (95-67)
Minnesota Twins (84-78) Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox (90-72)
Detroit Tigers (73-89) Detroit Tigers Cleveland Indians (78-84)
Kansas City Royals (62-100) Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals (62-100)


AL West

L.A. Angels (91-71) Oakland A's Oakland A's (93-69)
Oakland A's (87-75) L.A. Angels L.A. Angels (89-73)
Texas Rangers (82-80) Texas Rangers Texas Rangers (80-82)
Seattle Mariners (70-92) Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners (78-84)

Comparing the teams’ expected numbers of wins to their actual 2006 wins, here are the teams ranked from least to most disappointing (playoff teams in bold):

1. Detroit Tigers +22
2. New York Mets +17
3. Minnesota Twins +12
4. Toronto Blue Jays +10
5. L.A. Dodgers +9
6. Seattle Mariners +8
7. Oakland A’s +6
8. Arizona Diamondbacks +5
8. Colorado Rockies +5
8. San Diego Padres +5
11. Cincinnati Reds +4
11. New York Yankees +4
13. Philadelphia Phillies +1
14. Chicago White Sox EVEN
14. Kansas City Royals EVEN
16. L.A. Angels -2
16. Texas Rangers -2
18. Milwaukee Brewers -3
19. Boston Red Sox -5
19. Florida Marlins -5
19. Pittsburgh Pirates -5
19. San Francisco Giants -5
23. Baltimore Orioles -6
23. Houston Astros -6
25. Washington Nationals -7
26. Cleveland Indians -9
27. Tampa Bay Devil Rays -10
28. Atlanta Braves -11
29. St. Louis Cardinals -14
30. Chicago Cubs -16

Cardinals: ouch!

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