For those of you just tuning in, for the past couple of years, I’ve been comparing Sports Illustrated’s baseball preview issue’s predictions for the upcoming season with the predictions generated by a quick-and-dirty formula from an old Bill James Baseball Abstract that only takes previous season win totals into effect. Here’s what happened with last year’s predictions (spoiler alert: poor Mets!).
| Sports Illustrated | Bill James formula | Actual results |
|---|---|---|
| AL East | ||
| 1. N.Y. Yankees (97-65) | 1. Boston Red Sox (95-67) | 1. N.Y. Yankees (103-59) |
| 2. Boston Red Sox (96-66) | 2. N.Y. Yankees (91-71) | 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67) |
| 3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72) | 3. Tampa Bay Rays (87-69) | 3. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78) |
| 4. Baltimore Orioles (80-82) | 4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) | 4. Toronto Blue Jays (75-87) |
| 5. Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) | 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-94) | 5. Baltimore Orioles (64-98) |
| AL Central | ||
| 1. Minnesota Twins (85-77) | 1. Cleveland Indians (86-76) | 1. Minnesota Twins (87-76) |
| 2. Cleveland Indians (82-80) | 2. Minnesota Twins (85-77) | 2. Detroit Tigers (86-77) |
| 3. Chicago White Sox (79-83) | 3. Chicago White Sox (83-79) | 3. Chicago White Sox (79-83) |
| 4. Detroit Tigers (77-85) | 4. Detroit Tigers (79-83) | 4. Cleveland Indians (65-97) |
| 5. Kansas City Royals (74-88) | 5. Kansas City Royals (73-89) | 5. Kansas City Royals (65-97) |
| AL West | ||
| 1. L.A. Angels (86-76) | 1. L.A. Angels (98-64) | 1. L.A. Angels (97-65) |
| 2. Oakland Athletics (81-81) | 2. Texas Rangers (78-84) | 2. Texas Rangers (87-75) |
| 3. Texas Rangers (73-89) | 3. Oakland Athletics (75-87) | 3. Seattle Mariners (85-77) |
| 4. Seattle Mariners (69-93) | 4. Seattle Mariners (70-92) | 4. Oakland Athletics (75-87) |
| NL East | ||
| 1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) | 1. Philadelphia Phillies (91-71) | 1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) |
| 2. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) | 2. N.Y. Mets (89-73) | 2. Florida Marlins (87-75) |
| 3. Atlanta Braves (84-78) | 3. Florida Marlins (80-82) | 3. Atlanta Braves (86-76) |
| 4. Florida Marlins (77-85) | 4. Atlanta Braves (76-86) | 4. N.Y. Mets (70-92) |
| 5. Washington Nationals (70-92) | 5. Washington Nationals (64-98) | 5. Washington Nationals (59-103) |
| NL Central | ||
| 1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) | 1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) | 1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) |
| 2. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) | 2. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74) | 2. Chicago Cubs (83-78) |
| 3. St. Louis Cardinals (82-80) | 3. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79) | 3. Milwaukee Brewers (80-82) |
| 4. Cincinnati Reds (80-82) | 4. Houston Astros (82-80) | 4. Cincinnati Reds (78-84) |
| 5. Houston Astros (70-92) | 5. Cincinnati Reds (73-89) | 5. Houston Astros (74-88) |
| 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98) | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) | 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (62-99) |
| NL West | ||
| 1. L.A. Dodgers (88-74) | 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) | 1. L.A. Dodgers (95-67) |
| 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75) | 2. L.A. Dodgers (83-79) | 2. Colorado Rockies (92-70) |
| 3. San Francisco Giants (77-85) | 3. Colorado Rockies (79-83) | 3. San Francisco Giants (88-74) |
| 4. Colorado Rockies (76-86) | 4. San Francisco Giants (72-90) | 4. San Diego Padres (75-87) |
| 5. San Diego Padres (69-93) | 5. San Diego Padres (72-90) | 5. Arizona Diamondbacks (70-92) |
2010 predictions will be posted within a couple of days (spoiler alert: Sports Illustrated has finally learned their lesson about picking the Mets to finish first).