Tag: sports illustrated

The 2009 predictions

And without further adieu…

Sports Illustrated Bill James formula
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (97-65) 1. Boston Red Sox (95-67)
2. Boston Red Sox (96-66) 2. N.Y. Yankees (91-71)
3. Tampa Bay Rays (90-72) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (87-69)
4. Baltimore Orioles (80-82) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (79-83) 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-93)
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins (85-77) 1. Cleveland Indians (86-76)
2. Cleveland Indians (82-80) 2. Minnesota Twins (85-77)
3. Chicago White Sox (79-83) 3. Chicago White Sox (83-79)
4. Detroit Tigers (77-85) 4. Detroit Tigers (79-83)
5. Kansas City Royals (74-88) 5. Kansas City Royals (73-89)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (86-76) 1. L.A. Angels (98-64)
2. Oakland Athletics (81-81) 2. Texas Rangers (78-84)
3. Texas Rangers (73-89) 3. Oakland Athletics (75-87)
4. Seattle Mariners (69-93) 4. Seattle Mariners (70-92)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (91-71)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) 2. N.Y. Mets (89-73)
3. Atlanta Braves (84-78) 3. Florida Marlins (80-82)
4. Florida Marlins (77-85) 4. Atlanta Braves (76-86)
5. Washington Nationals (70-92) 5. Washington Nationals (64-98)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (93-69) 1. Chicago Cubs (93-69)
2. Milwaukee Brewers (84-78) 2. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74)
3. St. Louis Cardinals (82-80) 3. St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)
4. Cincinnati Reds (80-82) 4. Houston Astros (82-80)
5. Houston Astros (70-92) 5. Cincinnati Reds (73-89)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-98) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers (88-74) 1. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (87-75) 2. L.A. Dodgers (83-79)
3. San Francisco Giants (77-85) 3. Colorado Rockies (79-83)
4. Colorado Rockies (76-86) 4. San Francisco Giants (72-90)
5. San Diego Padres (69-93) 5. San Diego Padres (72-90)

Looking forward to another baseball season!

2008 predictions in review

I can’t believe I forgot to do this last year, especially given what happened in the American League East! In my defense, I was more interested in this prediction at the time.

For those of you just joining us, every year, baseballrelated.com presents the predictions from the baseball preview issue of Sports Illustrated, as well as the predictions produced by an extremely quick-and-dirty formula from a Bill James Baseball Abstract of the 1980s. It’s now time to compare the 2008 predictions against the 2008 final standings.

Sports Illustrated Bill James formula Actual results
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (94-68) 1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67) 1. Tampa Bay Rays (97-65)
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67) 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75) 3. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78) 3. N.Y. Yankees (89-73)
4. Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) 4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (86-76)
5. Baltimore Orioles (64-98) 5. Tampa Bay Rays (64-98) 5. Baltimore Orioles (68-93)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (90-72) 1. Cleveland Indians (90-72) 1. Chicago White Sox (89-74)
2. Cleveland Indians (89-73) 2. Detroit Tigers (90-72) 2. Minnesota Twins (88-75)
3. Chicago White Sox (77-85) 3. Minnesota Twins (85-77) 3. Cleveland Indians (81-81)
4. Kansas City Royals (73-89) 4. Chicago White Sox (78-84) 4. Kansas City Royals (75-87)
5. Minnesota Twins (72-90) 5. Kansas City Royals (67-95) 5. Detroit Tigers (74-88)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (87-75) 1. L.A. Angels (92-70) 1. L.A. Angels (100-62)
2. Seattle Mariners (82-80) 2. Seattle Mariners (85-77) 2. Texas Rangers (79-83)
3. Oakland Athletics (75-87) 3. Oakland Athletics (82-80) 3. Oakland Athletics (75-86)
4. Texas Rangers (72-90) 4. Texas Rangers (77-89) 4. Seattle Mariners (61-101)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets (91-71) 1. N.Y. Mets (91-71) 1. Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76) 2. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) 2. N.Y. Mets (89-73)
3. Atlanta Braves (85-77) 3. Atlanta Braves (82-80) 3. Florida Marlins (84-77)
4. Washington Nationals (73-89) 4. Florida Marlins (73-89) 4. Atlanta Braves (72-90)
5. Florida Marlins (72-90) 5. Washington Nationals (72-90) 5. Washington Nationals (59-102)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (91-71) 1. Milwaukee Brewers (80-82) 1. Chicago Cubs (97-64)
2. Cincinnati Reds (87-75) 2. St. Louis Cardinals (80-82) 2. Milwaukee Brewers (90-72)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (85-77) 3. Chicago Cubs (79-83) 3. Houston Astros (86-75)
4. Houston Astros (74-88) 4. Houston Astros (76-86) 4. St. Louis Cardinals (86-76)
5. St. Louis Cardinals (73-89) 5. Cincinnati Reds (75-87) 5. Cincinnati Reds (74-88)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94) 6. Pittsburgh

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Pirates (67-95)
NL West
1. Colorado Rockies (89-73) 1. San Diego Padres (89-73) 1. L.A. Dodgers (84-78)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74) 2. Colorado Rockies (85-77) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80)
3. L.A. Dodgers (85-77) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77) 3. Colorado Rockies (74-88)
4. San Diego Padres (79-83) 4. L.A. Dodgers (84-78) 4. San Francisco Giants (72-90)
5. San Francisco Giants (68-94) 5. San Francisco Giants (73-89) 5. San Diego Padres (63-99)

Neither prediction did particularly well in 2008. Both failed on the surprising Rays, and on predicting the Tigers to finish first (actually, the Bill James formula had them tied with the Indians). The Bill James formula also predicted the Padres to finish first — yikes.

But now we start with a clean slate for 2009, and two fresh sets of predictions. They will be posted here soon.

Goodbye!

Here’s the cover of the May 26 issue of Sports Illustrated…

At first, I thought I was looking at some major mistakes in the artwork, but then I realized, no, the action depicted is taking place in Bizarro World. (That was a little less clear on my subscription copy, which has the address label printed over the bizarro advertising in the lower right corner.)

Predictions for 2008

Yes, this blog is still in business. It’s time for our annual look at the Sports Illustrated baseball predictions, all the better to laugh about later when the Cubs do not win the National League pennant. (Yes, that’s what SI has predicted — a Tigers-Cubs World Series, in fact, with the Tigers victorious.) As usual, they are accompanied by a set of predictions made using a quick-and-easy formula found in a Bill James Baseball Abstract from the ’80s (double last season’s win total, add the win total from two years ago, divide by 3).

Sports Illustrated Bill James formula
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees (94-68) 1. N.Y. Yankees (95-67)
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) 2. Boston Red Sox (95-67)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (87-75) 3. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78)
4. Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) 4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93)
5. Baltimore Orioles (64-98) 5. Tampa Bay Rays (64-98)
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers (90-72) 1. Cleveland Indians (90-72)
2. Cleveland Indians (89-73) 2. Detroit Tigers (90-72)
3. Chicago White Sox (77-85) 3. Minnesota Twins (85-77)
4. Kansas City Royals (73-89) 4. Chicago White Sox (78-84)
5. Minnesota Twins (72-90) 5. Kansas City Royals (67-95)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (87-75) 1. L.A. Angels (92-70)
2. Seattle Mariners (82-80) 2. Seattle Mariners (85-77)
3. Oakland Athletics (75-87) 3. Oakland Athletics (82-80)
4. Texas Rangers (72-90) 4. Texas Rangers (77-89)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets (91-71) 1. N.Y. Mets (91-71)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76)

2. Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)
3. Atlanta Braves (85-77) 3. Atlanta Braves (82-80)
4. Washington Nationals (73-89) 4. Florida Marlins (73-89)
5. Florida Marlins (72-90) 5. Washington Nationals (72-90)
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (91-71) 1. Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)
2. Cincinnati Reds (87-75) 2.St. Louis Cardinals (80-82)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (85-77) 3. Chicago Cubs (79-83)
4. Houston Astros (74-88) 4. Houston Astros (76-86)
5. St. Louis Cardinals (73-89) 5. Cincinnati Reds (75-87)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94)
NL West
1. Colorado Rockies (89-73) 1. San Diego Padres (89-73)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (88-74) 2. Colorado Rockies (85-77)
3. L.A. Dodgers (85-77) 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
4. San Diego Padres (79-83) 4. L.A. Dodgers (84-78)
5. San Francisco Giants (68-94) 5. San Francisco Giants (73-89)

In other news, although I have upgraded my TV watching to high-definition since last year, I have also had a schedule change at my job. I now work a normal Monday-through-Friday week, which means I will not be at home to watch the Opening Day games, as I did in 2007 and 2006 and 2005. Sorry about that. Perhaps by 2009, I will be independently wealthy, or I’ll use a day of vacation time.

On Carsten Charles

Sports Illustrated has an excerpt from Bill James’s newest Handbook up today, ranking the twenty-five best young players. As always, James is using an arcane, yet probably solid system, but the most important part is his commentary. Like this on one of my favorites, giganto LHP C. C. Sabathia:

I have to tell you, as a baseball fan, I absolutely adore C. C. Sabathia. I always have. I’ve compared all these players to somebody else. It is sacrilege to compare C. C. Sabathia to any other pitcher. He is totally unique. For

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one thing, although listed weights of baseball players are so bogus that it’s hard to see the point of listing them, C. C. has to be the heaviest player in major league history. He’s huge — 6’7″and has an aircraft carrier frame supporting large piles of necessary and unnecessary flesh, all of this adorned with comic little ears that stick out from his face as if the Lord couldn’t find a flat place to put them. He has a unique delivery, hanging his massive leg in the air in seeming defiance of both gravity and nature, yet he is balanced and graceful. He projects a sort of genial warrior calm on the mound. He was an outstanding pitcher when he reached the majors in 2001 and has gotten steadily better, cutting his walks from 95 in 180 innings to 37 in 241 innings. He’s 26 now, like Peavy, and his age is pushing him downward on this list; he is less of a young talent, and more of a mature product. But I don’t think I’ve ever missed a C. C. Sabathia start in Kansas City when I was near KC or in Boston since I’ve been in Boston, and I hope he pitches forever.

I agree with every damn word. The fact that Sabathia didn’t turn in the lights-out game he was capable of against the fearsome Boston lineup was one of the big disappointments of this postseason. May he get a chance to do it next October.

The predictions in review

The predictions were posted on March 29th, and exactly seven months later, it’s now time to see how everyone did.

Actual results Sports Illustrated Bill James formula Levi’s predictions
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox (96-66) 1. N.Y. Yankees 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66) 1. Boston Red Sox
2. N.Y. Yankees (94-68) 2. Boston Red Sox 2. Boston Red Sox (89-73) 2. N.Y. Yankees
3. Toronto Blue Jays (83-79) 3. Toronto Blue Jays 3. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) 3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Baltimore Orioles (69-93) 4. Baltimore Orioles 4. Baltimore Orioiles (71-91) 4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (66-96) 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (63-99) 5. Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (96-66) 1. Cleveland Indians 1. Chicago White Sox (93-69) 1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers (88-74) 2. Detroit Tigers 2. Minnesota Twins (92-70) 2. Detroit Tigers
3. Minnesota Twins (79-83) 3. Chicago White Sox 3. Detroit Tigers (87-75) 3. Cleveland Indians
4. Chicago White Sox (72-90) 4. Minnesota Twins 4. Cleveland Indians (83-79) 4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City Royals (69-93) 5. Kansas City Royals 5. Kansas City Royals (60-102) 5. Kansas City Royals
AL West
1. L.A. Angels (94-68) 1. L.A. Angels 1. L.A. Angels (91-71) 1. L.A. Angels
2. Seattle Mariners (88-74) 2. Oakland Athletics 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71) 2. Oakland Athletics
3. Oakland Athletics (76-86) 3. Texas Rangers 3. Texas Rangers (80-82) 3. Texas Rangers
4. Texas Rangers (75-87) 4. Seattle Mariners 4. Seattle Mariners (75-87) 4. Seattle Mariners
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73) 1. N.Y. Mets 1. N.Y. Mets (92-70) 1. N.Y. Mets
2. N.Y. Mets (88-74) 2. Atlanta Braves 2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76)

2. Atlanta Braves
3. Atlanta Braves (84-78) 3. Philadelphia Phillies 3. Atlanta Braves (83-79) 3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Washington Nationals (73-89) 4. Florida Marlins 4. Florida Marlins (80-82) 4. Florida Marlins
5. Florida Marlins (71-91) 5. Washington Nationals 5. Washington Nationals (74-88) 5. Washington Nationals
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (85-77) 1. St. Louis Cardinals 1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) 1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers (83-79) 2. Chicago Cubs 2. Houston Astros (84-78) 2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St. Louis Cardinals (78-84) 3. Milwaukee Brewers 3. Cincinnati Reds (78-84) 3. Chicago Cubs
4. Houston Astros (73-89) 4. Houston Astros 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85) 4. Cincinnati Reds
5. Cincinnati Reds (72-90) 5. Pittsburgh Pirates 5. Chicago Cubs (70-92) 5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (68-94) 6. Cincinnati Reds 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95) 6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (90-72) 1. L.A. Dodgers 1. San Diego Padres (86-76) 1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Colorado Rockies (90-73) 2. Arizona Diamondbacks 2. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) 2. L.A. Dodgers
3. San Diego Padres (89-74) 3. San Diego Padres 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86) 3. San Diego Padres
4. L.A. Dodgers (82-80) 4. Colorado Rockies 3. San Francisco Giants (76-86) 4. San Francisco Giants
5. San Francisco Giants (71-91) 5. San Francisco Giants 5. Colorado Rockies (73-89) 5. Colorado Rockies

(Levi’s predictions, made in the comments to the March 29th post, didn’t actually include the Rockies, which I didn’t notice until I was preparing this table. If he wants to lie in the comments to this post and claim he meant to put them in first or second place in the NL West, that’s his prerogative.)

The predictions

Yes, my Sports Illustrated baseball preview issue arrived a week ago, but their predictions were printed on a dark green background in white text that came out a little blurry in my copy. And that’s why it’s taken me so long to post these!

Also, I realize I haven’t yet used Bill James’s quick-and-dirty prediction formula as I’ve done previously.

Sports Illustrated Bill James formula
AL East
1. N.Y. Yankees 1. N.Y. Yankees (96-66)
2. Boston Red Sox 2. Boston Red Sox (89-73)
3. Toronto Blue Jays 3. Toronto Blue Jays (85-77)
4. Baltimore Orioles 4. Baltimore Orioles (71-91)
5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays 5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays (63-99)
AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians 1. Chicago White Sox (93-69)
2. Detroit Tigers 2. Minnesota Twins (92-70)
3. Chicago White Sox 3. Detroit Tigers (87-75)
4. Minnesota Twins 4. Cleveland Indians (83-79)
5. Kansas City Royals 5. Kansas City Royals (60-102)
AL West
1. L.A. Angels 1. L.A. Angels (91-71)
2. Oakland Athletics 1. Oakland Athletics (91-71)
3. Texas Rangers 3. Texas Rangers (80-82)
4. Seattle Mariners 4. Seattle Mariners (75-87)
NL East
1. N.Y. Mets 1. N.Y. Mets (92-70)
2. Atlanta Braves 2. Philadelphia Phillies (86-76)
3. Philadelphia Phillies 3. Atlanta Braves (83-79)
4. Florida Marlins 4. Florida Marlins (80-82)
5. Washington Nationals 5. Washington Nationals (74-88)
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals 1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73)
2. Chicago Cubs 2. Houston Astros (84-78)
3. Milwaukee Brewers 3. Cincinnati Reds (78-84)
4. Houston Astros 4. Milwaukee Brewers (77-85)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates 5. Chicago Cubs (70-92)
6. Cincinnati Reds 6. Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95)
NL West
1. L.A. Dodgers 1. San Diego Padres (86-76)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks 2. L.A. Dodgers (82-80)
3. San Diego Padres 3. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86)
4. Colorado Rockies 3. San Francisco Giants (76-86)
5. San Francisco Giants 5. Colorado Rockies (73-89)

The biggest surprise in the Sports Illustrated predictions is the position of the Cubs, but I guess that’s the eternal optimism for you.

Their World Series pick is for a freeway series, Angels over the Dodgers. Incidentally, they’ve changed the parking procedures at Dodger Stadium this year (and raised the parking rate from $10 to $15 in the process), so any late-arriving fans can be ascribed to the parking attendants not knowing what they’re doing, rather than the usual apathy.

My schedule is clear for Monday and MLB Extra Innings will definitely be on DirecTV, if nowhere else, so I’m ready for another year of Opening Day blogging.

(Note primarily to myself for future reference: here’s how I fixed the problem with the

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table.)

Someone else has been reading lately

Steve Rushin’s column in the new issue of Sports Illustrated is about Karl Cicitto, a collector of baseball books who has some 4,000 volumes in his house. As you can see even from the first paragraph in the free online preview of the column, Karl’s pick for best baseball book is Veeck As in Wreck by Bill Veeck, available from the University of Chicago Press.

Block that baseball metaphor!

From the June 5 Sports Illustrated: “Life these days for the Tigers is one big bowl of Frito pie: They’ve got a little bit

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